Nvidia Stock Broke Its ’50-Day Moving Average.’ Here’s Where It Could Go Next.

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Nvidia

stock has been a massive winner this year thanks to the chipmaker’s AI dominance. Now, shares are falling, and an important technical level has broken. Where does the stock go next?

When thinking of AI, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) might be the first stock to come to mind. Its stock rallied at the tail-end of 2022 on hopes that artificial intelligence would drive its business, then continued gaining when these hopes became reality. But a strange thing has happened since the stock peaked on July 18—good news on AI isn’t boosting shares the way it used to.

Consider: On Aug. 8, Nvidia Nvidia revealed its next-generation version of the GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip, something that will make it faster and better at handling AI duties. The stock, though, finished that day down 1.7% at 446.64, just above its 50-day moving average near $429. And on Wednesday, the 50-day broke when Nvidia dropped 4.7% to $425.54, making it the biggest loser in the

S&P 500
on no news at all.

Should investors be fretting about where Nvidia stock goes next? Not if the past three years are anything to go by. The shares have fallen below their 50-day moving average 21 times over the past three years, and they have averaged a gain of 18% over the three months following such an occurrence. What’s more, the stock was lower three months later less than a third of the time, suggesting that the odds favor shares moving higher.

Of course, this is just a look at the past three years, years that haven’t exactly been normal. Nor is it the largest sample size. Still, the evidence suggests that it’s not time to panic yet, particularly with Nvidia’s earnings just two weeks away.

Write to Ben Levisohn at ben.levisohn@barrons.com