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The COVID-19 pandemic, rampant inflation and regional conflicts directly influenced Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop in value over the past two years. However, 2024 promises to be a resurgent period, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back.
The cryptographer, who pioneered the proof-of-work algorithm applied in Bitcoin’s protocol, tells Cointelegraph that the preeminent cryptocurrency is trailing below the historical price trend line of previous mining reward halving events.
“Biblical” events hurt Bitcoin
Back weighed in on the potential price action of Bitcoin as the next halving approaches, which will see Bitcoin miners’ block reward reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Block reward halvings are programmatically hardwired into Bitcoin’s code, taking place after every 210,000 blocks.

Back says that the overlaid averages of the previous market cycles and halvings indicate that Bitcoin’s relative value is trailing behind widely accepted projections. Multiple events have played a role in driving the price of BTC down, which has also been seen across traditional financial markets:
“The last few years were like biblical pestilence and plague. There was COVID-19, quantitative easing and wars affecting power prices. Inflation running up people, companies are going bankrupt.”
The impact has keenly affected markets and portfolio management, according to Back. Investment managers have had to manage risk and losses over the past few years, which has necessitated the sale of more liquid assets.
“They have to come up with cash, and sometimes they’ll sell the good stuff because it’s liquid and Bitcoin is super liquid. It used to happen with gold, and I think that’s a factor for Bitcoin in the last couple of years,” Back explains.
Bitcoin would have hit $100,000 already
As 2023 comes to a close, many of these macro events that Back cited have wound down, while more industry-specific failures have also been resolved. This has been reflected in Bitcoin’s recent price surge from Nov. 2023 onwards.
“The wave of the contagion, the companies that went bankrupt because they were exposed to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi and FTX — that’s mostly done. We don’t think there are many more big surprises in store,” Back said.
Related: Blockstream targets continued Bitcoin miner surplus with Series 2 BASIC Note
The Blockstream CEO previously predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in the next market cycle and referred back to this point. He believes BTC would have hit this mark already if not for the macro factors highlighted before.
Back also referred to the Bitcoin “stock-to-flow” model created by pseudonymous former institutional investor PlanB as a reference point for the potential upside for Bitcoin in 2024.
If you want to know more about bitcoin Stock-to-Flow:
* This is the original 2019 article:https://t.co/n5P5uMCKHT
* Or watch this YouTube video: pic.twitter.com/Qp8SjqtXIB— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 5, 2023
Back explains that PlanB’s model and heuristics suggest that savvy Bitcoin investors historically bought BTC six months before a halving event and sold into significant surges in price that have occurred in the 18 months following the drop in mining rewards:
“People thought it was a bit of a crazy assertion that we might get to $100,000 pre-halving because I said it when the price was around $20,000.”
He adds that Bitcoin’s price hitting $44,000 multiple times in Dec. 2023 suggests that his prior prediction might not be so far-fetched.
The Bitcoin ETF effect
Prominent investors and market analysts have also highlighted the effect of the potential approval of several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates https://t.co/uiWgfxOfzz
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 29, 2023
Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have touted these applications to get the green light in early 2024. Galaxy Digital’s co-founder Michael Novogratz has also predicted mass inflows of institutional investment into the BTC-backed products, a point echoed by Back:
“I think Bitcoin could get to $100,000 even before the ETF and before the halving. But I certainly think the ETF shouldn’t be undervalued in its influence.”
A key reason cited by the Bitcoin advocate is that whole segments of traditional markets, including major fund managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, are simply not allowed to invest directly into assets like Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs will drive institutional adoption in 2024 — Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz
“If they’re managing a mutual fund, they have rules, either externally imposed or as part of their fund, that they can only buy things like public stocks and ETFs. They can’t buy into startups, they can’t buy precious metals physically. They can’t do any of that stuff,” Back said.
This remains a pertinent reason why a spot Bitcoin ETF could drive significant capital inflows into the space. Back adds that the investment vehicle opens access to Bitcoin exposure for many types of funds, particularly in the U.S., that are more inclined to do so through Fidelity or BlackRock than with a cryptocurrency exchange.
Magazine: ‘Elegant and ass-backward’: Jameson Lopp’s first impression of Bitcoin
Blockstream CEO Adam Back Bets on Bitcoin’s $100,000 Milestone Ahead of Halving Next Year
Back’s optimism does not solely hinge on the halving. The Blockstream CEO is confident that Bitcoin will scale new heights even before the event.
Adam Back, a prominent British cryptographer and Bitcoin (BTC) advocate, has once again predicted that the cryptocurrency will attain an all-time high (ATH) of $100,000 per BTC before the upcoming halving event in April 2024. In a show of his unwavering belief in this forecast, the CEO of Blockstream, a blockchain technology company, has placed a significant wager of one million satoshis with his contender.
Back’s latest prediction stemmed from a conversation on the newly rebranded social media platform X (formerly Twitter) with a pseudonymous user known as @Vikingobbitcoin. This time, the forecast came with a wager. During the conversation, Back predicted that BTC’s value would surpass $100,000 by March 31, 2024, just before the halving event in April. @Vikingobbitcoin, on the other hand, believes this milestone will not be achievable until 2025, post-halving.
the bet is on🚀: i bet #bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100k between now and halving (31st Mar 2024) with @vikingobitcoin9 1million sats to the winner. pic.twitter.com/PNpAaZvl8F
— Adam Back (@adam3us) August 5, 2023
Blockstream CEO Remains Bullish on Bitcoin
The halving event occurs approximately every four years and holds great significance for the crypto community. Historically, halvings have led to increased attention, heightened market volatility, and speculative activity within the digital asset space. This natural market phenomenon involves reducing the issuance of new BTC, creating a supply constraint that often contributes to price surges.
However, Back’s optimism does not solely hinge on the halving. The Blockstream CEO is confident that Bitcoin will scale new heights even before the event. This belief prompted him to make the million satoshi wager — a testament to his commitment and faith in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The million satoshi bet, valued at around $290 in the current price, might seem nominal given Back’s estimated net worth of $50 million to $300 million. Nevertheless, it symbolizes much more than a financial commitment. It’s a statement of Back’s unwavering belief in his prediction.
Can Bitcoin Reach $10 Million in 2032?
Meanwhile, this is not Back’s first time predicting Bitcoin’s trajectory. Back in August 2021, during an interview with Anthony Pompliano, he envisioned Bitcoin surging to the $100,000 milestone. He based this on an analysis of options prices, anticipating the ascent. However, his prediction fell short as BTC nearly reached $70,000 in November, marking its current ATH.
Despite the prior miscalculation, the Blockstream CEO renewed his projection in 2022 amidst market downturns that wiped out billions of dollars from the industry. He held firm to his forecast, believing that Bitcoin would achieve $100,000 by year-end. However, just like in 2021, the crypto asset ended the year at around $16,949.
Earlier in February, the Bitcoin supporter also predicted the crypto asset to reach $10 million by the sixth halving in 2032.
Meanwhile, Back is not the only Bitcoin supporter making high stake bets on the asset’s value. Earlier this year, entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan made waves by wagering $1 million on Bitcoin’s price movement within a 90-day period. These bold bets underline the zeal and enthusiasm surrounding the digital currency world.
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Chimamanda is a crypto enthusiast and experienced writer focusing on the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. She joined the industry in 2019 and has since developed an interest in the emerging economy. She combines her passion for blockchain technology with her love for travel and food, bringing a fresh and engaging perspective to her work.
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