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CoinNews

Year 18 witnessed unprecedented record flows into gold ETFs – Matt Hougan

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Quick Take

Visual Cap data shared by Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, illustrates the two-decade-long journey of Gold ETFs since the first Gold ETF — GLD — launched in the US in 2004.

The data shows that between 2003 and 2012, Gold ETFs initially attracted substantial inflows due to the convenience they offered over holding physical gold. However, between 2013 and 2015, these funds experienced three consecutive years of outflows.

The trend reversed between 2016 and 2020, with five consecutive years of inflows. North America accounted for almost two-thirds of the global net inflows in 2020, according to Visual Cap.

Interestingly, these significant inflows happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period of extreme uncertainty. Despite this, gold only saw a modest increase of 30% since the start of 2020, while Bitcoin has appreciated 535%.

Gold vs Bitcoin since Jan 1 2020: (Source: Trading View)
Gold vs Bitcoin since Jan 1, 2020: (Source: Trading View)

In contrast, Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, has seen striking success since spot ETFs connected to the flagship crypto were launched five weeks ago. The ETFs have attracted approximately $4.9 billion in net inflows since they began trading.

Recently, as reported by CryptoSlate, the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has coincided with an acceleration in the outflows from Gold ETFs, suggesting a possible shift in investors’ preferences.

Gold ETFs Record Inflows: (Source: VisualCap)
Gold ETFs Record Inflows: (Source: VisualCap)

The post Year 18 witnessed unprecedented record flows into gold ETFs – Matt Hougan appeared first on CryptoSlate.



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CoinNews

Analyst Envisions $600K Price Tag, Assessed In Gold Ounces

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Renowned Bitcoin analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model for BTC, has made a bold prediction regarding the future price of BTC. What sets this forecast apart is its evaluation in terms of gold ounces, shedding light on a unique perspective.

The PlanB Projection: Bitcoin Meteoric Rise

According to PlanB’s recent post on X, he foresees a monumental shift in Bitcoin’s value, expected to rise significantly in the coming years. Drawing a comparison with gold, PlanB highlighted that currently, one Bitcoin is equivalent to 26 ounces of gold, valuing an ounce of gold at $2,000.

Looking ahead to 2024-2025, PlanB predicts that Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket to roughly 100 gold ounces, translating to $200,000 in fiat currency terms.

Delving deeper into the charted trajectory, PlanB anticipates Bitcoin to climb to 35 gold ounces ($70,000) by 2024 and surge to 300 gold ounces by 2025. This projection would place Bitcoin’s value at a price target of $600,000, marking a monumental milestone in its journey.

Bullish Momentum Fuels Bitcoin’s Rise

As Bitcoin continues to capture the attention of investors, recent weeks have witnessed a notable bullish momentum propelling the cryptocurrency forward. With a surge of more than 20% over this period, Bitcoin has crossed the $1 trillion market cap threshold, accompanied by a trading volume hovering above $20 billion in the past week alone.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

This surge in activity has ignited optimism among investors and traders, leading to a significant accumulation of the asset. Notably, Whale Alert data reveals that earlier today a substantial withdrawal of approximately $962.15 million from the leading US crypto exchange, Coinbase, to an undisclosed address, underscoring the heightened interest in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin open interest has surged to over $24 billion, marking a 50% increase since the start of 2024. This surge in open interest, a metric representing the total value of outstanding derivative contracts, signifies heightened market activity and interest in Bitcoin futures and options trading.

Notably, this surge in open interest levels has not been witnessed since the peak of Bitcoin’s price in November 2021 when it soared to an all-time high of $69,000.

This trend has been consistent across various crypto exchanges, with platforms like CME, Binance, and ByBit leading the charge and commanding over 50% of the open interest in the market, according to data from Coinglass,

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.



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Finance

Gold miner Polymetal looks to sell Russian operations for $3.69 billion amid nationalization fears

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Gold miner Polymetal International on Monday said it had struck a deal to sell the entirety of its Russian mining business for $3.69 billion, with a view to fully exiting the Russian Federation due to the combined threats of Western sanctions and nationalization by Putin’s government.    

If approved by shareholders, Polymetal will sell the business to Russian mining company JSC Mangazeya Plus, with a view to re-focusing its operations towards Kazakhstan where it currently runs two mines that account for around one-third of its total production. 

The Anglo-Russian gold miner, which was founded in St Petersburg in 1998, said the sanctions-compliant agreement would see JSC Mangazeya Plus pay it $1.48 billion in cash and also agree to settle the Russian segment’s $2.21 billion debts. 

Shares in Polymetal International fell 6% on Monday in Moscow, having lost 11% of their value over the past 12 months and 66% of their value since the start of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. 

In August 2023, the company abandoned its London listing and re-domiciled from Jersey to Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, with a view to avoiding Russia imposed rules that designated Jersey an “unfriendly jurisdiction” in response to Western sanctions. 

Polymetal said it will let shareholders vote on the agreement at its upcoming annual general meeting on 7 March, as the company said the sell-off would help avoid risks including those posed by the operations being expropriated or nationalized by the Russian government.  

In a statement, Polymetal said it believes a deal to sell its Russian operations “presents the most viable opportunity for the Group to restore shareholder value by removing or substantially mitigating critical political, legal, financial and operational risks.” 

The striking of the deal marks the end of an arduous process faced by Polymetal in finding a sanctions-compliant buyer for its Russian operations, after it vowed to exit that country following the outbreak of war. 

Polymetal’s push to divest from Russia was made more urgent by the U.S. Department of State’s decision to impose sanctions on its Russian subsidiary in May 2023, which blocked U.S. citizens from interacting with that unit. 

The process of selling off its Russian assets has been more difficult due to stringent rules imposed by authorities in both Moscow and Washington on any company looking to exit Russia.

Polymetal said it had received confirmation from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that those involved in the sale to JSC Mangazeya would not be subject to sanctions, and made clear that any payment would be made via sanctions-compliant financial institutions. 

JSC Mangazeya Plus is the mining subsidiary of the Mangazeya commodities conglomerate, which is controlled by Russian billionaire Sergey Yanchukov, who started his career as an oil trader in Ukraine. 

If completed, the deal will see Polymetal retain its position as the second largest gold miner in Kazakhstan, in controlling two mines with an estimated 11.3 million ounces of gold. 

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CoinNews

Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Dumps Big Tech, Bets on AI and Gold

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Dumps Tech, Bets on AI and GoldStanley Druckenmiller, the legendary investor who was part of George Soros’ Quantum Fund, has dumped traditional tech stocks while putting funds into gold mining companies and artificial intelligence (AI) shares. According to filings, he sold Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Broadcom stocks while acquiring shares of Barrick Gold and Newmont, two gold miners. Stanley Druckenmiller Sells […]

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CoinNews

Robert Kiyosaki Expects Bitcoin to Take off — Foresees Gold Crashing Below $1,200

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Robert Kiyosaki Expects Bitcoin to Take off — Foresees Gold Crashing Below $1,200Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has predicted that bitcoin and silver will take off while gold will crash below $1,200. He urges investors to prepare for the “biggest crash in history” which he forecasted in his book years ago. Emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is “destroying” the U.S. economy, he advised: “Rather than […]

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CoinNews

Bitcasino.io Player Strikes Gold Twice, Securing $4.5M in Winnings

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

PRESS RELEASE. February 15, 2024, London, UK — In a remarkable story one Bitcasino.io player has won a huge jackpot and another big win in the space of a few weeks, earning a massive $4.5 million dollars. Bets were placed in USDT cryptocurrency, with joy found in a Max Win, followed by a Big Win […]

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Finance

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and outperformance awaits silver, says UBS

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich.

Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Gold and silver are expected to climb further in 2024 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, UBS forecasts.

“We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar” said the investment bank’s precious metals strategist Joni Teves, who expects the metal to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.

Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment. 

In turn, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand.

While there is still much uncertainty on the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Last week, the Fed announced its decision to leave rates unchanged in January, on top of shooting down hopes of a rate cut in March. 

In a scenario where the Fed is easing, we think silver can do really well. It tends to outperform a move in gold.

The bullion’s appeal as a safe haven asset has risen since Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7, which contributed to gold prices notching an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce last month.

“We do think investors will start to build allocations to gold in an environment where there is a lot of macro uncertainty [and] geopolitical risks,” said Teves.

Prospects for gold’s “poorer cousin” are also optimistic, with silver on course to “really, really shine.”

Silver is not as common of a geopolitical and safety haven compared to gold, which partly explains why it has underperformed gold in the last few years, the strategist said. But the tables could turn in its favor when the Fed eases.

“In a scenario where the Fed is easing, we think silver can do really well. It tends to outperform a move in gold,” Teves said. “Silver has been underperforming gold quite a lot. So there is a lot of catching up to do and I think the move could be quite dramatic,” she added.

Silver’s performance is tied closely to the health of the overall economy due to its wide industrial applications. The precious metal is commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.

Gold last traded at $2,052 per ounce, while silver was priced at $22.69 per ounce.

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CoinNews

New Bitcoin ETFs did in 3 days what Gold took 36 days to achieve with $1.8 billion in assets

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

One of the most common comparisons we’ve seen concerning the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States is the one with the launch of the first gold ETF (GLD) in 2004. Interestingly, comparing the two asset classes’ premieres through their daily attestations reveals some illuminating data.

For clarity and transparency, all data below excludes the Grayscale and ProShares BITO ETFs. Adding Grayscale skews the data due to the enormous volume and substantial value of assets under management due to its conversion from a trust. BITO is removed due to it not being a spot ETF. The BTC Value was calculated using the BRR New York Variant reference rate for each day, as per the ETF prospectuses.

From the table below, we can see that Bitcoin was able to completely obliterate gold’s historic launch volume. On its first day, GLD saw around $265 million in volume, whereas Bitcoin saw almost ten times that, at $2.3 billion. Moreover, while GLD saw a total of $1.32 billion traded, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $3.69 billion in volume.

Day Gold Volume  Bitcoin Volume Gold (oz) Bitcoin (BTC)  Gold Value  BTC Value
1  $265,475,560.00  $2,326,000,000.00 260,000 18,390  $114,920,000.00  $858,204,107.10
2  $520,908,570.00  $864,000,000.00 1,859,994 34,589  $828,806,907.20  $1,513,961,913.56
3  $537,794,250.40  $505,000,000.00 2,799,952 41,760  $1,253,785,205.50  $1,804,467,974.4

Interestingly, while Bitcoin ETFs have recorded much higher volumes and inflows, the price of the underlying assets saw opposite patterns. Gold rose by 1.3%, while Bitcoin declined by 7.4% during the first three traded days of the relative ETFs. However, just some 12 days after GLD’s debut, gold recorded a local high which was not then surpassed for more than six months.

Below is an extension of GLD’s launch to showcase the first 36 trading days, with the current data for Bitcoin retained for context. With the combined Bitcoin ETF assets under management value at around $1.8 billion, excluding Grayscale and ProShares BITO, it is around $550 million ahead of where Gold was on day three.

However, if you look through the chart, you can see that it took until day 36 for GLD to catch up with this $550 million deficit,

Day Gold Volume  Bitcoin Volume Gold (oz) Bitcoin (BTC)  Gold Value  BTC Value
1  $265,475,560.00  $2,326,000,000.00 260000 18,390  $114,920,000.00  $858,204,107.10
2  $520,908,570.00  $864,000,000.00 1859994.06 34,589  $828,806,907.20  $1,513,961,913.56
3  $537,794,250.40  $505,000,000.00 2799952.98 41,760  $1,253,785,205.50  $1,804,467,974.4
4  $140,664,868.00 2799952.98  $1,254,751,438.19
5  $272,080,970.40 3099933.3  $1,390,568,824.08
6  $138,203,116.20 3229921.97  $1,456,602,906.16
7  $170,457,821.20 3329909.96  $1,502,482,070.50
8  $174,195,914.90 3329909.96  $1,509,624,832.88
9  $175,007,060.00 3329909.96  $1,507,776,858.64
10  $290,265,194.40 3329699.18  $1,512,255,390.24
11  $191,282,072.10 3329699.18  $1,493,759,189.63
12  $140,216,070.40 3329699.18  $1,508,360,596.14
13  $171,163,297.50 2829802.88  $1,278,328,839.45
14  $269,033,368.50 2929780.58  $1,279,831,486.60
15  $155,510,997.60 2929780.58  $1,280,403,410.75
16  $107,054,704.80 2929780.58  $1,271,307,158.65
17  $63,428,329.20 2929780.58  $1,274,488,086.03
18  $97,571,408.20 2929780.58  $1,280,333,615.99
19  $116,211,034.40 2929780.58  $1,285,886,107.04
20  $142,893,529.80 2929780.58  $1,287,336,889.37
21  $83,393,702.00 2849806.22  $1,250,464,182.36
22  $85,858,298.90 2849806.22  $1,260,539,772.85
23  $60,660,331.20 2849806.22  $1,256,251,296.24
24  $119,004,803.10 2949768.83  $1,300,463,528.86
25  $28,264,444.60 2949768.83  $1,300,744,250.85
26  $117,333,792.00 2949768.83  $1,303,931,835.40
27  $34,337,812.00 2949768.83  $1,303,917,545.74
28  $245,620,242.00 2949768.83  $1,307,737,913.68
29  $56,457,398.40 3049722.19  $1,327,960,347.57
30  $204,186,443.20 3509488.41  $1,536,598,756.84
31  $147,681,409.60 3508826.93  $1,500,610,088.45
32  $86,694,401.60 3508826.93  $1,494,453,263.56
33  $107,703,688.40 3608771.8  $1,531,058,990.59
34  $187,942,939.80 3958574.65  $1,670,970,198.67
35  $187,942,939.80 3958574.65  $1,662,206,494.48
36  $189,511,980.70 4488252.67  $1,890,712,131.56

As an interesting point the consider, GLD held 4,488,252 ounces of gold by day 36, worth $189 million at the time. At today’s value, this is worth $9 billion. Bitcoin ETFs would need to acquire an additional 168,097 BTC to achieve an equivalent value, or 5,093 BTC per day. The last recorded trading data we have showed an inflow of 7,171 BTC into the newborn ETFs on day three.

For reference, the total amount of spot Bitcoin currently under management in the United States through Commodity-Based Trust Shares is 647,651 BTC, worth around $27.9 billion, including Grayscale. Gold ETFs reached an equivalent AUM around February 2009, almost 5 years after launch.

The total value of gold ETFs in the U.S. market as of press time is around $96.9 billion, according to VettaFi’s rankings. Silver comes in next at $12.8 billion, making Bitcoin the second most valuable ETF commodity asset class in the United States.

Editor’s Note: Due to T+1, reporting data is difficult to verify in such a short timeframe, so discrepancies between data providers are to be expected until at least 7 – 14 days’ worth of reports are available. CryptoSlate has used its best efforts to verify and confirm all data used in this analysis. Gold data was taken from the official GLD historical records. 

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CoinNews

Cantor CEO Makes Gold And Bitcoin ETFs Comparison, Foresees True Rally With Halving

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

In a highly anticipated development, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted regulatory approval for 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, sparking excitement within the crypto community. 

However, despite initial expectations of a significant price surge, the Bitcoin market has experienced an 8% price drop since the ETFs began trading.

Bitcoin ETFs To Unfold Impact Over Time? 

Drawing a comparison with the launch of the first Gold ETF, Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management CEO, Howard Lutnick, noted that the immediate rush to buy the asset did not materialize.

Lutnick remarks that historical data from the launch of the Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), reveals that substantial price appreciation took place over several years. 

When GLD was introduced in November 2004, the price of gold stood at around $700. By December 2023, it had surged to an all-time high of $2,145. The gold market capitalization, estimated at $1 trillion to $2 trillion pre-ETF approval, ballooned to $16 trillion within a few years.

Likewise, despite the initial hype surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETFs, experts suggest that the true impact of these ETFs will unfold over an extended period. 

As reported by NewsBTC, market analysts at CoinShares estimate that the United States possesses around $14.4 trillion in addressable assets. 

Assuming a conservative scenario where 10% of these assets invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, it could potentially result in approximately $14.4 billion inflows within the first year.

These significant inflows have the potential to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs and initiate a notable price uptrend. However, as Cantor CEO Howard Lutnick predicted, the halving event, expected to occur in April, remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth.

Dual Catalysts For Crypto Market Enthusiasm

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, analysis of past halvings reveals a pattern of substantial rallies leading up to the event, followed by a brief correction and consolidation period before a major bull run and peak. The peak typically occurs approximately 18 months after each halving, showcasing a consistent trend.

The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time of the halving, the Bitcoin price was around $13. 

However, within a year, it reached a peak of $1,152. Despite a subsequent fall in price to nearly $200 in 2015, critics declared the bursting of a bubble and the demise of Bitcoin. Yet, this trend would repeat in subsequent halving cycles.

The second halving occurred on July 16, 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin was valued at $664. 

The following year saw a peak of $17,760. Similarly, the third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, lowering the block reward to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was priced at $9,734 during the halving and peaked at $69,000 the following year.

Based on the historical cycles, it is evident that the upcoming halving scheduled for April 2024 will be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin ETFs will also play a crucial role. 

These ETFs are expected to positively impact the cryptocurrency’s price and bring new inflows and interest to the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETFs
The daily chart shows BTC’s sideways price action over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Finance

Gold futures look to score their biggest daily gain since mid-December

by CoinNews
written by CoinNews

Gold futures rallied Friday, prompting prices to turn higher for the week, as U.S. and U.K. airstrikes in Yemen, in response to Houthi rebel attacks on ships in the Red Sea, raised the precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven investment.

The U.S.-U.K. strikes on Yemen “clearly raise the threat of wider tensions, if not [a] major power conflict,” Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, told MarketWatch.

In Friday dealings, gold for February delivery
GCG24,
+1.43%

GC00,
+1.43%
climbed $38, or 1.9%, to $2,057.20 an ounce on Comex. Most-active gold futures haven’t tallied a daily dollar and percentage climb that big since Dec. 14, FactSet data show.

The U.S. and British forces carried out joint strikes Thursday on targets in Yemen used by Iran-backed Houthis, in response to the rebels attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea.

“Risk aversion is keen late this week” following those strikes, with gold pries sparking sharply higher, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.com.

Still, with global stock markets also rising alongside bond prices Friday, gold looks to be taking its cue from weak U.S. and Chinese inflation data, rather than from the latest geopolitical violence, said Ash.

China’s producer price index fell 2.7% in December, down for a 15th straight month. In the U.S., the producer price index fell by 0.1% last month for a third consecutive month.

Gold prices had fallen to four-week lows Thursday after data that day revealed a 0.3% rise in the U.S. consumer consumer price index in December, the biggest gain in three months. But prices have now rallied towards a record-high weekly finish on the PPI miss, said Ash. “That shows just how sensitive gold remains to Fed rate-cut expectations.”

“Despite oil prices jumping on the U.S.-led action in the Red Sea, bond traders continue to see inflationary pressures easing further in 2024,” he said.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
traded at 3.951%, down from 2.974% on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related.

“While gold is rising to price that in, it looks as vulnerable as stocks and bonds to a turnaround in sentiment,” said Ash.

He said fed funds futures are now priced for six rate cuts 2024, “twice as many as the Fed itself has predicted.”

Given that, “expect more push-back from Fed officials, plus more volatility in gold and other rate-sensitive markets, ahead of the Fed’s January meeting,” he said. The next meeting is scheduled for Jan. 30 to 31.

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