Neel Kashkari is now the object of scorn on Reddit’s message board.
Source link
It is a crucial week for economists and investors as key economic data will be released, along with two days of testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress.
Powell testifies before Congress
Wednesday, Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern
Fed officials have been singing from the same songbook over the past few weeks, stressing patience about potential interest-rate cuts. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, summed it up best when he recently asked “what’s the rush?”
Powell may not have appreciated that question. He is going to spend two days this week with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, many of whom are more than likely to have an answer prepared for Waller’s question.
Remember, Senate Democrats already wanted the first rate cut in January, saying that the Fed’s tight monetary policy was damaging the housing market. Talk of patience might not be welcomed.
Democrats are eager for the Fed to cut rates and potentially give the economy a jolt going into the November elections. Republicans will likely stress the need for the Fed to stay the course to combat still-high inflation. It is a political year and the Fed’s actions will be seen in that light, no matter how often it swears to be apolitical.
February job report
Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern
Economists expect the labor market to cool after two “fiery” job gains the past two months, said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. In December and January, the economy added an average of 268,000 net new jobs per month.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the economy to add 210,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%., nearly as low as it has been in 50 years. Average hourly wages are expected to moderate to a 0.2% gain from the strong 0.6% rise in the prior month.
“Even though we believe job growth will cool in February, we still see a number of signs that the labor market remains strong, Feroli of JPMorgan said.
Q1 GDP tracking estimate
Data not officially released until end of April
Economists are ratcheting up their forecasts for first-quarter gross domestic product based on recent data.
Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan Chase, said he raised his estimate to a 2.25% rate in the January-March quarter, from his prior forecast of 1.7%.
Aichi Amemiya, senior economist for the U.S. at Nomura Securities, said he’s raised his tracking estimate to 2.2% from 2.1%.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is 2.1%, down from 3% previously.
The government revised its estimate for fourth quarter growth to 3.2% from 3.3% previously. The official first-quarter GDP data won’t be released until April 25.
So the economy “is still in the soft landing zone,” said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO.
As Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, prepares to return to Jackson Hole this Friday, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a sense of anticipation due to the similarities in the current price action compared to the period leading up to last year’s speech.
Key moving averages have been tested and lost over the past two weeks, followed by a period of consolidation, reminiscent of previous events.
However, it is important to note that these similarities do not guarantee a repeat of the past, as market conditions and Powell’s stance have since evolved.
Déjà Vu In The Bitcoin Market?
According to Keith Alan, co-founder of analysis and crypto research firm Material Indicator, last year, in the two weeks preceding Powell’s speech, BTC’s price broke through crucial technical support levels represented by the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-week Moving Averages (MA).
Subsequently, a period of consolidation ensued, followed by a significant price drop in response to Powell’s hawkish tone during the speech. Alan stated:
Remember when Fed Chair Powell spoke from Jackson Hole last year and his hawkish tone triggered a 29% BTC dump that took 5 months to recover?
Notably, the recent price action in the Bitcoin market has displayed similarities to last year’s pattern. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has tested and lost these same key moving averages, and it is currently undergoing a phase of consolidation, mirroring the events leading up to Powell’s previous address.
Keith Alan emphasizes that since last year’s Jackson Hole event, there have been notable changes. Core inflation has decreased, and Powell’s approach to communication has become more “measured”.
It is uncertain whether Powell will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance in his upcoming speech, making it challenging to predict the market’s reaction with certainty. What is evident, however, is that the market is primed for a significant move.
Additionally, Alan suggests that the formation of a lower low in price increases the likelihood of an extension of the existing downtrend. Market participants should be prepared for the possibility of further testing of support levels.
As the Bitcoin market awaits Powell’s speech, market sentiment remains dynamic. Traders and investors are anticipating potential market-moving cues from the event.
As the date of Jerome Powell’s return to Jackson Hole approaches, Bitcoin has displayed a notable recovery of 2.1% within the past 24 hours, marking a positive upward movement that brings it closer to the $27,000 threshold.
However, it is crucial to note that if the outcome of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday proves favorable for crypto investors and propels Bitcoin’s price to higher levels, the cryptocurrency may encounter a significant obstacle in the form of its 200-day moving average positioned at $27,200.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
The Kraken founder is not the first public figure in the crypto industry to be investigated by federal authorities.
Jesse Powell, the controversial founder and former CEO of Kraken, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has recently found himself at the center of an investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). According to a New York Times report citing people familiar with the matter, the FBI raided Powell’s residential home in Brentwood earlier in March following allegations of cyberstalking made against him by a non-profit organization (NGO) called Verge Center for the Arts.
The raid stemmed from claims made by the NGO, which accused Powell of unauthorized access to its computer systems and impeding its communication channels by blocking access to emails and other essential messages. In conjunction with the US attorney’s office for the Northern District of California, the FBI has been actively investigating the case for several months.
The former Kraken CEO, who remained on the company’s board after stepping down in September last year, was also part of the founders of the NGO Art Center. However, he was ousted from the board of directors of the foundation following the expression of his controversial views. In response to his dismissal, Powell initiated a lawsuit against the arts center, claiming that his removal was unjustifiable.
US Authorities Confiscate Powell’s Electronics during the Raid
During the search at Powell’s residence in the affluent Brentwood neighborhood of Los Angeles, FBI agents seized electronic devices belonging to the Kraken founder, people familiar with the matter told the New York Times. However, it is important to note that no formal charges have been filed against Powell concerning the cyberstalking claims.
Brandon Fox, the attorney representing Powell, acknowledged that his client is indeed the subject of an investigation by federal prosecutors in Northern California. However, Fox stressed that the probe solely revolves around the allegations made by Verge Center for the Arts and is entirely unrelated to Powell’s professional endeavors and conduct within the crypto industry.
The lawyer firmly asserted that Powell did not participate in any wrongdoing. He further noted that the art center provided one-sided information to the bureau, claiming that the authorities would have found him not guilty if presented with the complete story.
“We have reason to believe Verge provided a one-sided account that did not provide the government with the full picture, which would have shown that he did nothing wrong,” Fox said.
The Kraken founder is not the first public figure in the crypto industry to be investigated by federal authorities. A few months ago, the FBI searched the Potomac, Maryland, residence of Ryan Salame in April. Salame, who previously held the position of Chief Executive Officer at FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary, was scrutinized for the catastrophic collapse of the $32 billion-valued exchange, FTX. While details regarding the raid were not disclosed, it was speculated that the investigation may be linked to Salame’s potential involvement in the exchange’s downfall.
FBI’s Investigation Has No Connection to Kraken
A Kraken spokesperson responded to the news, emphasizing that the Verge investigation has no connection to the operations or activities of the company. He further reiterated that there is no reason to believe that prosecutors are investigating any other potential issues beyond the scope of the Verge case.
While the most recent investigation has no possible connection to Kraken, the crypto exchange and Powell have faced legal scrutiny in the past. Recently, prosecutors have examined allegations raised in a wrongful termination lawsuit against Kraken in 2019. The lawsuit accused the company of generating revenue from accounts in countries under US sanctions. The suit alleged that Kraken’s bank accounts were missing millions of dollars in customer deposits.
next
Chimamanda is a crypto enthusiast and experienced writer focusing on the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. She joined the industry in 2019 and has since developed an interest in the emerging economy. She combines her passion for blockchain technology with her love for travel and food, bringing a fresh and engaging perspective to her work.