A new Deutsche Bank survey found that over half of respondents expect cryptocurrencies to become an important asset class and a method of payment. In addition, 10% of respondents expect the price of bitcoin to be above $75,000 by year-end. Deutsche Bank’s Crypto Survey A recent Deutsche Bank survey of over 3,600 consumers, published this […]
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A large share of Americans worry about their nest eggs.
CNBC’s International Your Money Financial Security Survey polled about 500 people each in nine countries. Of the 498 people surveyed in the U.S., more than half (53%) said they’re behind schedule in retirement planning and savings. The poll was conducted by SurveyMonkey.
“I think most Americans do struggle to save enough for retirement,” said David Blanchett, a certified financial planner and head of retirement research for PGIM, a money manager.
For many families, money held in individual retirement accounts and 401(k)-type plans are a “key determinant” of future retirement security, according the according to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances.
Just 54% of Americans had a retirement account as of 2022, according to the SCF, which is published every three years. Their typical balance was $87,000, as measured by the median value.
The picture isn’t much different for those who are on the precipice of retirement. To that point, the typical 55- to 64-year-old had saved just $71,000 in a 401(k)-type plan as of 2022, according to Vanguard Group data.
“Most Americans are going to need to save for retirement,” Blanchett said. “Yes, you can live off Social Security. But that’s probably not going to replace your pre-retirement standard of living.”
Ample competing financial priorities can make it challenging to save for old age.
Sometimes, especially for lower earners, there’s a choice between survival today and ensuring for a good standard of living in the future, Blanchett said.
In 2022, households in the bottom 25% by wealth had a $3,500 median net worth, according to the SCF. By comparison, the top 10% had a $3.8 million net worth.
Households across income and wealth spectrums may simultaneously be trying to set aside money for financial emergencies, college savings, and buying a car or home, for example.
Credit-card debt is at all-time highs, suggesting Americans have leaned more on credit cards to pay their bills.
“It’s hard to save for retirement when you’re not able to pay your rent,” Blanchett said.
Households shoulder more responsibility to save for their futures as employers have shifted away from pensions toward 401(k) plans.
Three in four (74%) of U.S. adults polled by CNBC expect to rely on government support in retirement, but only 42% of respondents are confident in the government’s ability to support them.
Social Security benefits are funded via payroll taxes and assets held in a federal trust fund. However, demographic trends have stressed that trust fund. It’s set to be depleted in 2033, at which point about 77% of promised benefits would be payable.
Congress is likely to intervene and the current benefit formula is unlikely to change for current and near retirees, experts said.
Globally, Americans seem to trail residents of other nations when it comes to sentiment around retirement preparedness, the CNBC survey found.
CNBC polled residents from Australia, France, Germany, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, in addition to the U.S.
About 74% of respondents in France, 70% in Singapore and 65% in Mexico report being on schedule for retirement planning and savings, for example, the poll found. About 59% of respondents in Switzerland, 58% in Spain, 56% in the UK, 51% in Germany and 50% in Australia did so — all higher than the 47% among U.S. respondents.
“When compared with some of the more highly rated retirement systems, the U.S. falls short because employers do not have to offer a retirement plan, employees do not have to save and can easily withdraw what they do save, and our levels of personal debt cripple the ability of young workers to ever begin to save for their future,” said Angela Antonelli, executive director at Georgetown University’s Center for Retirement Initiatives.
She called these “fundamental and persistent challenges” to Americans’ retirement confidence and security.
Yet, several states have launched so-called “auto-IRA” programs to boost worker access and try closing the retirement savings gap.
Auto-IRAs require businesses that don’t offer a retirement plan to facilitate payroll deduction into a state-run program. They’re still in the “early stages of implementation,” but have already accumulated 845,000 new funded accounts and 212,000 registered employers, she said.
In the recent SlateCast episode, Texas Blockchain Council Chairman President Lee Bratcher discussed the controversial emergency survey recently issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding Bitcoin mining energy usage. As Bratcher explained:
“[The EIA] created this farce of an emergency and rushed it through without the notice and comment period.”
He elaborated that the survey asked for proprietary information and failed to follow proper procedures, leading to a lawsuit from the Texas Blockchain Council.
According to Bratcher, it was evident that Senator Elizabeth Warren heavily influenced the EIA’s decision to issue this Bitcoin mining survey. Warren had explicitly asked the Secretary of Energy to survey Bitcoin energy use and clarified that she expected data to be collected before the next briefing.
With this context, Bratcher believes the EIA faced undue and inappropriate political pressure that led it to skirt proper procedures and fairness, ultimately necessitating the lawsuit from the Texas Blockchain Council.
Though Warren may have had reasonable intentions around understanding Bitcoin’s climate impact, Bratcher argues her demands failed to acknowledge benefits and placed disproportionate scrutiny on Bitcoin miners.
Bratcher does not believe Bitcoin mining will ever rely completely 100% on renewables but expects a future mix incorporating stranded or wasted gases. He points to projects already redirecting natural gas that would otherwise be flared into generators that power Bitcoin mining. This reuse provides environmental benefits compared to releasing unused gas.
Though likely not enough to fully power Bitcoin mining, these stranded energy sources, paired with growth in solar, wind, and other renewables, can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of mining while still leveraging fossil fuels when available.
Bratcher paints an optimistic view that with the right policies, much of Bitcoin’s energy could one day come from renewables and waste gas.
When asked about the benefits Texas offers Bitcoin mining companies, Bratcher emphasized:
“It’s really around our energy only marketplace…you’re able to create a power trading strategy that’s probably more important than your operating strategy, or at least have equal importance and, and that’s why Texas is the best place in the world to open up a business or mine Bitcoin specifically.”
He did warn new mining companies that “this is an extremely competitive industry, and people get wrecked, especially if you’re trying to jump in without experienced operators.”
Now that the EIA has rescinded the original emergency Bitcoin survey, Bratcher hopes they will take the opportunity to craft a fair and thorough data center survey. This would ideally ask standardized questions across industries about energy consumption, allowing equitable comparison and performance benchmarking.
Importantly, Bratcher stresses that the Texas Blockchain Council welcomes sharing energy usage information as long as proprietary or sensitive details are protected. He advocates that miner contributions to grid stability should be accounted for. An improved survey could enable miners to showcase their energy resilience and grid benefits.
Bratcher seeks collaborative transparency, not combative obscurity, to resolve the survey controversy. He added:
“We’re happy to share energy consumption information, and we’re happy to share. It’d be great if they ask a question about our performance on the grid, and we could give them some data about how we’re doing.”
The full SlateCast episode provides an in-depth look at the Bitcoin mining industry in Texas and the policy issues surrounding it. Bratcher makes a strong case for the benefits Bitcoin mining can provide while also acknowledging fair concerns.
With Bitcoin poised to remain a growing industry, debates like these will likely continue around its energy usage and impact on grids. Watch the full podcast below:
NEW PODCAST 🎙️ Texas Blockchain Council challenges controversial #Bitcoin mining energy survey
Featuring @lee_bratcher from @TXblockchain_ with co-hosts @akibablade and @NateWhitehill pic.twitter.com/k6kJqYALLW
— CryptoSlate (@CryptoSlate) February 29, 2024
The United States, through the Energy Information Administration (EIA), will start collecting data about cryptocurrency miners’ energy consumption rate within the nation starting next week.
On Jan. 31, the EIA revealed its intention to initiate a provisional survey targeting commercial cryptocurrency miners. This survey was authorized by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as an emergency data collection request, signifying the urgency of obtaining this information.
To get the approval, EIA wrote that Bitcoin price increases have incentivized more crypto mining activity, increasing electricity consumption.
“The combined effects of increased cryptomining and stressed electricity systems create heightened uncertainty in electric power markets, which could result in demand peaks that affect system operations and consumer prices,” EIA claimed.
In tandem with the survey, the EIA will actively seek public input on the energy usage data collection process from the cryptocurrency mining sector.
EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis emphasized that the survey aims to shed light on the broader implications of cryptocurrency mining activities in the United States.
Furthermore, DeCarolis outlined the EIA’s focus on understanding how the energy demand associated with cryptocurrency mining is evolving. The agency aims to pinpoint geographical areas experiencing significant growth in this sector and quantify the electricity sources fueling this demand.
Mining activities have attracted significant attention from regulators and lawmakers alike for their electricity-sapping operations and impact on power grids and carbon emissions.
Over the past years, the U.S. has emerged as a major mining hub following China’s ban on such operations in 2021. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) data showed that the country contributed an average monthly hashrate share of more than 37% as of January 2022.
Notably, skeptics point to the top cryptocurrency energy usage’s negative impact on the environment as a stick against mining activities. However, industry experts have suggested that BTC mining activities can actively contribute to the stability and efficiency of power systems.
The post US to launch survey on cryptocurrency miners’ energy consumption appeared first on CryptoSlate.
U.S. consumers may be growing a bit more uneasy about their debts.
That’s according to a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which looked at Americans’ recent spending habits and how much they plan to spend in the near future.
The survey asks individuals how they would allocate an unexpected 10% increase in their income.
An average 38% of households said they would use that surprise pay bump to pay down debt, rather than spending or saving the funds.
That’s a jump of nearly a 5 percentage points from last year and the highest share of respondents who said they would set the money aside for debt payments since 2016.
Only 16% said they would spend or donate that money — the lowest percentage since the Fed started tracking the data nine years ago.
U.S. consumers have been racking up big debt balances over the past year, with consumer credit-card debt levels hitting record highs in recent months. Widespread use of buy-now-pay-later services during the holidays added to worries that so-called phantom debt may be weighing on Americans’ wallets without being documented on their credit reports.
Total consumer credit, a measure of how much money people have borrowed, topped $5 trillion for the first time in November, a trend that Sheila Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., called “not good.”
The New York Fed report showed that household spending continued to moderate at the end of 2023.
“The survey shows a continuation of the recent declining trend in monthly household spending growth,” the report said, “even though spending growth remains well above pre-pandemic levels.”
Expectations of growth in household spending for the year ahead reached the lowest level since December 2020, the report showed.
Survey respondents said they were less likely to make a large purchase such as a home appliance, furniture or home repairs over the next four months. However, consumers indicated they were more likely to purchase a home in the next four months than they were in August.
Bitwise reported on Jan. 4 that surveyed financial advisors largely do not expect a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be approved this year.
The company’s results suggest that most do not believe the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will soon approve such a fund. It wrote:
“In a surprising development, only 39% of advisors [of the 437 surveyed] believe a spot bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2024. By contrast, Bloomberg ETF analysts peg the likelihood of a January approval at 90%.”
Low expectations among financial advisors appear to be due to pessimism about the approval process rather than a critical attitude to crypto, as Bitwise’s survey also found that most advisors see the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF as a “major catalyst.” Bitwise said that 88% of advisors who are interested in purchasing Bitcoin are waiting until a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved to purchase it.
Furthermore, Bitwise found high commitment to cryptocurrency among financial advisors. It said that 98% of advisors who have an allocation to crypto in client accounts either intend to keep that exposure steady or increase exposure in 2024.
Bitwise also wrote that access is a “major barrier to adoption,” noting that only 19% of advisors are able to buy crypto in client accounts. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to appeal to traditional and institutional investors and remove those barriers.
The most notable finding is financial advisors’ low approval expectations. James Seyffart, one Bloomberg ETF analyst responsible for a higher 90% prediction, called the finding “very surprising … particularly with all the added media coverage.”
Eric Balchunas, another Bloomberg ETF analyst, implied that Bitwise’s finding might be related to the age of those working as financial advisors. He suggested that “boomer advisors are not spending inordinate [amounts] of time on Twitter or even online,” where ETF optimism seems to be widespread. The idea that financial advisors skew older is supported by findings from data analytics firm J.D. Power, which indicate that the average financial advisor is 57 years old.
Bloomberg analysts’ 90% odds have gained traction outside of Bitwise’s pessimistic findings, as industry members such as Mike Novogratz and research firms like K33 Research have backed that higher prediction.
Most spot Bitcoin ETF developments have been positive, with extensive engagement from the SEC, frequent amendments from applicants in order to satisfy requirements, and applications from world-class asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity.
One exception to this widespread optimism is a contrarian report from Matrixport on Jan. 3, which predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be rejected due to SEC chair Gary Gensler’s hostility towards cryptocurrency and due to the largely Democratic politics of SEC commissioners.
Regardless of whether the SEC chooses to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, it must decide on Ark Invest’s spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan. 10. Bitwise itself also has a spot Bitcoin ETF pending that could be potentially approved at that time.
A Christmas tree stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on December 1, 2023.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
In the final CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Stock Survey poll of the year, the 300 investors, traders and money managers surveyed are behind Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve.
Eighty-eight percent give the Fed an excellent or good score for 2023, that’s better than the 77% from the survey three months ago. More than half believe they’ll start cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024.
Those surveyed are mostly planning to put their money in the S&P 500, with 28% saying that would be a main target for them in the new year. Sixteen percent said they’d mostly be investing in Nasdaq 100 stocks.
About 12% said China would have the strongest growth followed by Japanese stocks, high yield bonds, long range US bonds and bitcoin, all coming in 8% apiece. Not one person surveyed said gold would be their favored investment of 2023. The commodity is near record highs and up 15% in 2023.
Gold, YTD
In terms of sectors, 35% said financials would be the winner in the new year with 23% favoring high dividend stocks.
When asked what would do better in 2024, the “Magnificent 7” or the other 493 S&P stocks respondents were firmly behind the Magnificent 7 with 77% saying they’d do better cumulatively than the rest of the S&P 500. Of the tech basket, Microsoft was the clear favorite in the group with 44% saying they’d pick that stock first, Amazon was a distant second at 24%, followed by Nvidia at 12% after its big run in 2023. Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Tesla were all in single digits.
Big cap tech is the favorite area for investors looking to invest in AI according to the survey with 58% saying that’s where they’d put their money.
The big cap tech stock they were most behind was Microsoft at 39% followed by Nvidia at 35%, AMD at 13% followed by Amazon at 9% and Alphabet at 4%. While many analysts still like Oracle, that stock had zero percent support in the survey. Just a few months ago analysts were big backers, but according to FactSet only 14 of 27 now have a buy rating on the stock, 12 are neutral and one is a sell. Oracle which was touted as a great undervalued AI play is now 17% from the June high.
In case things get rough for the markets, 35% say money markets are the best place to be followed by 31% in U.S. bonds and 19% in plain old cash. Just 7% would choose gold, 4% for crypto and real estate.
Health care, energy, staples and utilities were the worst sectors of the year with utilities down 11% in 2023. The survey asked “which of 2023’s weakest sectors has the most upside potential in 2024?” Health care was the clear winner with 56% saying that had the best change of doing well. About 24% said energy stocks, 12% favored consumer staples and 8% picked utilities.
When it comes to the biggest risks for stocks in 2024, stubborn inflation and problems with commercial real estate ranked highest followed closely by slow growth. War overseas and a more militarily aggressive China scored 11% apiece.
In terms of the 2024 election, only 15% said it weighed “heavily” on their investing strategy in 2024 with 85% saying it would have little impact on their decision making.
Rate cuts, an increased chance of a soft landing and lower inflation — the outlook for next year is looking up in the CNBC Fed Survey, to a point.
Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey see the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts next year, though not as aggressively or as quickly as markets have priced in. June is the first month for which more than half of respondents have a reduction built in, rising to 69% by July. Overall, the average respondent forecasts about 85 basis points of cuts next year, roughly one 25 basis point trim a quarter, but not as much as the 120 basis points built into futures markets.
“The Fed needs to begin laying out a road map to rate cuts that may represent tighter policy since cuts will be lagging the decline in inflation and real rates will be rising,” writes John Ryding, chief economic advisor to Brean Capital, in response to the survey.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Nationwide, writes in, “The markets have prematurely priced in high odds of rate cuts starting in Q1, but we do expect further steady disinflation will lead the Fed to begin rate cuts around mid-year.”
Like the Fed itself, the 35 respondents to the survey, including economists, strategists and analysts, separate into hawks and doves on the issue of rate cuts next year.
“I still believe (Powell) has the memories of the 1970s in his mind and will be more stubborn in keeping monetary policy tight for longer than markets want him to be,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.
But Michael Englund of Action Economics writes in, “The U.S. headline y/y inflation metrics will fall sharply into early-2024 thanks to weakness in energy prices and easier comparisons, leaving the Fed with significant elbow room to start tightening even if core year over year inflation rates remain firm.”
Respondents boosted the probability of a soft landing to 47%, up 5 points from the October survey. They lowered the probability of a recession in the next year by 8 points to 41%, the lowest since the spring of 2022.
Still, the average respondent sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% next year and gross domestic product coming in just below 1%, or about half of potential, showing that all is not rosy with the forecast and that an economic slowdown remains the baseline forecast for the group.
“A softening in hiring, income growth, and confidence all point to reduced consumer and business spending,” says Joel Naroff of Naroff Advisors.
But Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, writes in: “The U.S. consumer has proven itself a worthy adversary to everything the Fed has dealt it in its fight against inflation. The key is for a ‘Rocky’ ending, with the consumer still standing and able to leave the ring and heal, once the Fed rings the final bell and starts to cut rates.”
Inflation is forecast to decline on average to 2.7% by the end of next year, down from an expected year-end level of 3.2% for the consumer price index. About a third of respondents forecast the Fed will hit its 2% inflation target next year, 37% say it will happen in 2025 and 28% say it will happen after 2025 or never.
“For the FOMC in 2024, 3.5% inflation is acceptable, recession is not,” says Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “With 61% of adults owning equities, the highest since 2008, the Fed is not going to sacrifice faith in equities on the altar of 2% inflation.” Fed officials have insisted they will continue to pursue 2% as their inflation target.
Another wild card for next year is whether the Fed ends quantitative tightening in which it has been reducing its balance sheet to tighten monetary policy by allowing the bonds on its balance sheet to mature without replacing them. On average, respondents see the Fed halting QT in November 2024. But that average masks a wide disparity in views, with 55% saying it will happen in 2024 (evenly divided between the first and second half of the year), 30% saying it will happen in 2025 or later and 13% saying they don’t know.
The Fed is seen stopping QT with its balance sheet at $6.2 trillion, compared with the current level of $7.7 trillion and with bank reserves at $2.6 trillion, down from the current level of $3.4 trillion. At $95 billion a month in QT, that implies another eight or nine months of QT to reduce bank reserves to the average expected level. Fed officials have not specified a level, but respondents believe they could announce an end to QT as soon as August and will likely taper QT, or gradually reduce the amount of runoff, before bringing it to an end. When the Fed announces the end of QT, 56% believe it will also say that it will allow all of its mortgage and agency-backed securities to roll off of its balance sheet, 15% say it won’t and 29% do not know.
Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey see the S&P rising above 5,000 for the first time, on average, but not until the end of 2025. They forecast only a modest gain through 2024 of less than 2% from the current level to 4,696. But much depends on the economic growth: 47% see stocks as overpriced if there’s a soft landing, compared with 91% who say stocks are overpriced if there’s a recession.
Subodh Kumar, president, Subodh Kumar & Associates, sees the market in a period of limbo, unable to break out either way: “The equity markets … appear neither able to reach beyond the highs set at year-end 2021 nor do they appear to be willing to sustain a classical correction,” he wrote.
Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics, says, “Equities are expecting a ‘V’ shaped earnings recovery, an outcome that is unlikely with contracting bank credit.”
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Investors gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign to draw to a close have been migrating into beaten-up bonds and “undervalued” stocks in recent months.
Five months ago, roughly 52% of respondents in the fixed-income market said they were raising the duration in their bond holdings, according to a MFS survey conducted from May 31 to June 5, but released on Wednesday.
Almost one in three said they planned to boost allocations to U.S. credit in 2024, while about a quarter said they expected to increase in emerging-market debt.
“Clearly, investors have been de-risking over the past six to 12 months,” Jon Barry, managing director, MFS Investment Solutions Group, told MarketWatch in a follow-up call.
Results of the survey, now in its fourth year, also mark a notable shift in sentiment after an era of low rates, with fixed income finally viewed as “fairly valued,” something “it hasn’t been for a long time.”
Investing in longer-duration bonds hasn’t been for the faint of heart, with values recently declining by the most in nearly two decades in the wake of some 18 months of Fed interest-rate hikes.
See: Why a derailed $11 trillion corporate bond market looks ripe for a comeback as U.S. inflation slows
In the latest bout of volatility, the 10-year
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
and 30-year Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
surged to about 5% in October, the highest in 16 years. But with their swift retreat to 4.5% and 4.7% yields, several major U.S. bond indexes this week were lifted back into the green for the year, from a total return perspective.
The closely watched Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index, which tracks investment-grade U.S. bonds, was on pace for a roughly 0.4% total return on the year through Wednesday, according to FactSet.
The related $92.5 billion iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
AGG
was on track for a 0.7% total return in 2023, according to FactSet.
The latest retreat in bond yields has been pegged to growing optimism around fading inflation pressures and about the U.S. economy potentially avoiding a recession, even if the Fed only modestly cuts rates next year.
“On the equity side going forward, they are seeing opportunities in stocks that got a little more beaten down in the past few years,” Barry said.
The S&P 500 index
SPX
up 17.5% on the year as of Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP
up 35% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
up 5.7%, according to FactSet.
Read: S&P 500 close to exiting correction territory as JPMorgan warns risk-reward in stocks appears ‘unattractive’
Even with the recent rally, many bond indexes still remain deeply negative when looking at multiyear returns, with the Bloomberg US Treasury (20+Y) index on pace for a negative 39% 3-year total return, according to FactSet data.
The related $42.7 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT
was down about 7.3% from a return perspective, on the year.
Back in equities, about 60% of the MFS survey respondents said they expect U.S. small-
RUT
and mid-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks in the next one to three years.
Roughly 21% said they planned to reduce their large-cap and growth-stock exposure in the next 12 months.
The MFS survey included 112 individuals representing a range of firms that had from under $1 billion to over $1 trillion in assets under management.
U.S. President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (not pictured), as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 18, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
The American public, in the wake of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, believes the government should support Israelis over Palestinians and strongly back U.S. military funding for Israel. But a significant share want the U.S. to be evenhanded in the conflict.
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey also finds support for President Joe Biden at nearly all-time lows and that he would lose by 4 points to former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head race.
According to the survey, 39% of the public believe the U.S. government should favor Israelis over Palestinians in their conflict, compared with 34% after the 2014 Gaza war. Meanwhile 36% believe the U.S. should treat both the same, compared with 53% in 2014. Nineteen percent are undecided, up from 9% in 2014, suggesting the situation remains fluid and actions by either side could still move public opinion. (The prior results come from an NBC News survey in August 2014 conducted one month after the Gaza war.)
Meanwhile, 74% of the public believe it is either somewhat or very important for the U.S. government to fund military aid to Israel. That compares with 72% who say it’s important to fund securing the border with Mexico and foreign humanitarian aid. A smaller, but still solid 61% majority respond that it’s important to fund military aid to Ukraine compared with 52% who support military and economic aid to Taiwan.
The survey of 1,001 Americans across the country was conducted Oct. 11-15 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
Meanwhile, a combination of negative views on the economy and geopolitical tensions looks to be eroding support for President Biden. Americans’ overall approval rating for the president fell to 37% with 58% disapproving. It’s the highest disapproval and second-lowest approval rating of Biden’s presidency.
Biden’s 32% approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency, while the 63% economic disapproval rating is the second lowest.
Even while Biden moved quickly to publicly support Israel and provide additional aid, the public is giving the president poor marks for this handling of foreign policy. Just 31% approve and 60% disapprove.
A part of Biden’s problem looks to come from within his own party. Just 66% of Democrats support his handling of foreign policy and 74% back his handling of the economy, compared with 81% overall approval by Democrats.
“You don’t get sub 40 approval ratings without losing large chunks of your base. And that’s what’s happening here,” said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. He called the data “distressing numbers for a president facing reelection.”
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster for the survey, said the numbers among young people, Black people and Latinos “are very troubling” for Biden. They have been among the hardest hit economically and “you start to think that maybe they’ve run out of patience, and it’s starting to show through in their decreasing regard for the president,” Campbell said.
About the only “bright” spot for the president is that Trump bests him by just 4 percentage points in a head-to-head match up, 46-42 with 12% undecided. Both pollsters said that, given Biden’s poor numbers, Trump’s lead would likely be larger if not for widespread reservations about the former president himself. Yet, some of the data in the poll suggests that both independents and undecided voters would break for Trump.
The survey finds the support for Israelis over Palestinians is driven by Republicans, with 57% saying the government should favor Israelis, compared with just 29% of Democrats and 27% of independents. By contrast, 44% of Democrats and 47% of independents want the government to treat both sides the same.
Comparing the polls in 2014 and today shows that Americans 35 and older are more likely now than in 2014 to say the U.S. should favor Israelis with substantial growth in support from seniors. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, 46% say both should be treated the same, the most of any age group, and 11% say the U.S. government should favor Palestinians, up from 2% in 2014.
“There’s a real generational split on this question,” Campbell said. “Younger Democrats have increased their sympathies on both sides of the ledger to a certain degree, whereas Democrats over age 50 are really much more in support of Israel than Palestinians at this point in time.”
When it comes to what is important for the government to fund, Republicans and independents give the most support to securing the border with Mexico followed by military funding for Israel. Democrats prioritize military funding for Ukraine, followed by foreign humanitarian aid.
Click here for the full survey
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Correction: Biden’s 63% economic disapproval rating is the second lowest. An earlier version mischaracterized the figure.