Google, McDonald’s, Exxon Headline Busy Earnings Week
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The numbers: Commercial and industrial lending — a key driver of economic activity — fell by $2.1 billion to $2.75 trillion in the week ending July 12, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
C&I loans hit a peak of $2.82 trillion in mid-March, right before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and the pace of lending has been slowing gradually ever since.
Key details: Lending at large domestic banks rose $1.7 billion in the latest week to $1.54 trillion. Large-bank lending has held fairly steady this year. It stood at $1.55 trillion in the week of Jan. 4.
Lending at small domestic banks fell $1.5 billion to $720 billion. Small-bank lending fell sharply after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed but has recovered somewhat from a low of $706.9 billion in late March.
Uncredited
Big picture: The bank woes caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March have added to uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the crisis “seems to be better” but that bank lending has been slowing and credit standards are tighter. This should continue to slow the economy going into next year.
Already demand for cars is softening is the face of tighter credit standards and sharply higher interest rates, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The Fed tracks bank-lending standards by conducting quarterly surveys of bank executives.
Market reaction: Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
extending a winning streak to 10 days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
rose 1.9 basis points this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $30,000 but is heading nowhere, with the multimonth trading range refusing to shift.
BTC price action is giving traders little more than a frustrating sense of deja vu as they wonder what it could take to change the trend.
It may be more accurate to say that on low timeframes, a trend is exactly what Bitcoin lacks. The largest cryptocurrency has spent weeks bounding between upside and downside liquidity pockets without deciding whether bulls or bears will ultimately win.
This struggle continues to play out with predictable regularity, and nothing — not macroeconomic data prints, institutional involvement or anything else — has been able to switch things up.
With that in mind, it may not be all that problematic that the coming week offers little in terms of data-driven risk asset catalysts from the United States or Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin on-chain data points to a re-accumulation phase among the investor base, possibly reflective of a “calm before the storm” mentality before a more significant market move.
Crypto market sentiment is “neutral,” according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is now nonetheless at its lowest point for July so far.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more to determine potential BTC price triggers for the coming days.
Bitcoin weekly close keeps volatility away
Bitcoin’s weekly candle close refreshingly opted to dispense with volatility, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
While normally a time of erratic short-term price moves, the close saw little disruption, with even $30,000 support remaining unchallenged.
BTC/USD thus continues within a narrow “mini range” in place since last week, when a fakeout to upside liquidity resulted in new yearly highs followed by a dramatic comedown.
“I think everyone can see this range with their eyes closed at this point,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized.
“For me it’s pretty easy. Bulls have to retake $30.5K for me to consider closing the inefficiency from the dump. Until then, my base case is for price to seek the liquidity at $29.5K.”
Others have similarly come around to the idea that new local lows may come next for Bitcoin, given bulls’ inability to break the range for an extended period.
For fellow trader Credible Crypto, a return to $27,400 — an area not seen in almost a month — is not off the table.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the 6 month inversion FVG EQ.
Quote tweet confluence. pic.twitter.com/XqrpimIJRa
— Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) July 17, 2023
Trader Crypto Tony offered a potential downside target area of around $28,300, adding that this “remains his bias.”
This remains my main bias this week unless the bulls can reverse this quickly. The downside escalates once we lose support at $29,800
Do not rush into a position and remain patient pic.twitter.com/gRk9MQlkdI
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 17, 2023
In terms of strength at local price points, trader Jelle noted an ongoing battle on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which recently printed a bearish divergence with price trajectory.
“Bitcoin tried to take out the bearish divergence last week but got smacked down quickly,” he commented as part of his latest analysis.
“Both bulls and bears defend their ground fiercely. More ping pong, until breakout.”
Earnings season leads U.S. data releases
Those hoping for a macro-inspired risk asset shake-up may be left disappointed this week, with a lack of significant data due from the United States.
The highlight comes in the form of tech firm earnings and jobless claims on July 20, but with a Fed decision on interest rate hikes still around two weeks away, volatility remains on the horizon.
“Earnings season is now in full swing and the July Fed meeting is in focus. It’s going to be a busy couple of weeks,” financial commentary resource, The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a recent social media analysis.
Key Events This Week:
1. Retail Sales data – Tuesday
2. Building Permit data – Wednesday
3. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
4. Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. $TSLA $NFLX $GS and $MS earnings
6. ~10% of S&P 500 reports earnings
We’re 10 days out from the Fed meeting.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 16, 2023
According to current estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets remain convinced that the Fed will resume rate hikes regardless of already positive data prints showing inflation retreating faster than expected.
As of July 17, the odds of a 0.25% hike stand at a practically unanimous 96.1%.
An index to watch, meanwhile, is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), currently attempting to reclaim the 100 mark after dropping below it for the first time in more than a year.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin previously exhibited a strong inverse correlation with DXY, although this has waned considerably in 2023.
Whales return to the game
Turning to on-chain data, a reawakening of Bitcoin whales is getting on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant excited.
As noted by contributing analyst SignalQuant, unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) reflecting large tranches of coins are increasing this year — in classic bull market style.
SignalQuant referenced the UTXO Value Bands metric, which shows whales gradually coming back to life in 2023 after a rapid retreat in the latter half of 2022.
“From that view, as ‘the whale group’ increased with its price back in 2019, they are slowly increasing with its price in 2023 too,” he wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts on July 16.
“If their indicators gradually increase, then we can be more confident that 1)its price at the end of 2022 is a long-term bottom, and 2) that its price will continue to rise.”
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on rebounding whale numbers and other larger investor cohort exposure at current prices.
Supply dynamics repeat early bull market signals
It is not just whale behavior on the radar of analysts at present when it comes to hidden bullish BTC price signals.
The latest on-chain data shows that more of the BTC supply moved near $30,000 than at any other price point, reflecting a critical point of interest throughout the investor base.
In total, the zone around $30,200 has seen a total of 3.8% of the total supply move, according to on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin.
At the same time, older, long-dormant supply is coming back to life. This, Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift argued last week, has been characteristic of the early innings of every Bitcoin bull market to date.
“Increased onchain spending volume showing where we are in the cycle right now. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes,” he commented.
“Greed” fades from crypto markets
Few things show the fickle nature of the average crypto investor than the classic sentiment yardstick, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Related: Bitcoin exchanges now hold the same BTC supply share as in late 2017
While slightly lagging, Fear & Greed captures the rapidly-changing mood among market participants across even established trading ranges.
This is the case around the crucial $30,000 boundary, with sentiment improving markedly above and deteriorating below.
Currently, the index is in neutral territory, but at its lowest for July, at 54/100.
Extremes in either fear or greed tend to act as advance warning of market rebounds or retracements, respectively.
Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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What happened
Upstart (UPST -5.85%) is pulling back this week. The fintech company’s share price was down 19.9% from last week’s market close as of 11:30 a.m. ET, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Investors who were hoping that the Federal Reserve was done raising interest rates got some bad news this week. With inflation still running relatively hot, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the central banking organization anticipates additional rate hikes this year. Expectations for rates to continue rising triggered substantial sell-offs for many companies with growth-dependent valuations, including Upstart.
So what
Upstart has posted explosive gains over the last month, and it’s not surprising to see the stock give up some ground in light of an increasingly hawkish outlook on rates. Even with the sell-offs this week, the company’s share price is still up roughly 130% year to date. The fintech has benefited from excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), but ongoing macroeconomic pressures may be set to test just how smart the company’s platform really is.
Now what
Upstart was built from the ground up around the premise that AI could be used to create better ways of assessing whether loan applicants were creditworthy. The company’s platform has opened credit lines up to applicants who might not have been able to secure loans through other channels, but macroeconomic pressures have complicated the company’s business model.
Between high inflation, rising interest rates, and the possibility of a recession on the horizon, performance has struggled — and it remains to be seen how the company’s AI-powered lending platform will fare if conditions worsen.
UPST PS Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
Upstart is now valued at roughly 4.6 times this year’s expected sales — a highly growth-dependent valuation given that the company’s revenue has actually been shrinking substantially lately.
Still down roughly 92% from its high, the stock has plenty of explosive potential, but it remains a high-risk investment.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
What happened
The latest earnings report published by specialty healthcare company Patterson Companies (PDCO -0.38%) impressed not only investors, but also pundits following the stock. On that wave of optimism the company’s share price was up by nearly 10% week to date early Friday morning, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
So what
On Wednesday, Patterson published the figures for its fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, ended April 29. The company managed to grow its net sales 5% on a year-over-year basis to $1.72 billion. On the bottom line, it netted a non-GAAP (adjusted) profit of $82.4 million, or $0.84 per share. That compared quite favorably to the fourth-quarter 2022 result of just under $70.4 million.
It also blew past the average analyst estimate, which was $0.70 per share. Meanwhile, Patterson’s net sales figure exceeded the consensus of $1.66 billion.
After that crushing earnings beat, analysts spared no time in raising their price targets on Patterson stock. While none of these lifts were particularly drastic, collectively they added to the bullish aura on the shares after those figures were released.
By my count, five prognosticators enacted raises. Among them was Bank of America‘s Michael Cherny, who upped the price target to $40 per share from the preceding $35 and maintained the bank’s buy recommendation. A more typical move was made by Morgan Stanley‘s Erin Wright, with a $2-per-share bump to $38; Wright kept the stock’s equal weight (i.e., hold) recommendation intact.
Now what
Although no one should ever base their stock investments purely on analyst opinions, Patterson’s quarter was — almost indisputably — a solid one for the healthcare company. It has an intriguing business combination (it specializes mainly in animal health products, but has a thriving dental business, too), which alone makes it an offbeat stock worth watching.
Bank of America is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bank of America. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The average rate on the most popular mortgage, the 30-year fixed, fell for the third straight week, but demand for mortgages didn’t move much.
Total mortgage application volume increased 0.5% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. This after demand surged the week before.
Last week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.73% from 6.77%, with points falling to 0.64 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $726,200) increased to 6.80% from 6.79% for loans with a 20% down payment. This marks the second straight week that jumbo loans have a higher rate than conforming loans.
“The last time jumbo rates were higher was in December 2021. Tighter liquidity conditions have prompted jumbo lenders to pull back, increasing rates in the process,” wrote Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release.
Applications to refinance a home loan decreased 2% for the week and were 40% lower than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 2% for the week but were 32% lower than the same week a year ago. Homebuyers are starting to get used to higher interest rates, but the continued drop in new listings of homes for sale is keeping sales low. Federal Housing Administration demand rose more than conventional loan demand.
“First-time homebuyers account for a large share of FHA purchase loans, and this increase is a sign that while buyer interest is there, activity continues to be constrained by low levels of affordable inventory,” added Kan.
Homebuilders are benefiting from the dynamic. Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home jumped 17% in May compared with May 2022, according to the MBA. In tandem with demand, single-family housing starts jumped 18.5% in May compared with April, according to the U.S. Census.
Mortgage rates began this week slightly lower, but that could change Wednesday as investors react to testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the House Financial Services Committee.
Bitcoin (BTC) emerges from a hectic macro week to circle some classic trend lines near $26,000 — what could happen next?
After some brutal tests of traders’ resolve over the past seven days, the BTC price is still determined to hold familiar ground.
Market participants are in “wait and see” mode as a lack of clear direction characterizes the largest cryptocurrency at the start of a new week’s trading.
United States holidays mean traditional markets will only open on June 20, giving at least one day’s grace before any surprises hit.
There is still plenty left to deal with from last week, however, including BlackRock filing for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Rumors are now that Fidelity Investments might follow.
What will it take to inspire BTC price to adopt a trend? Cointelegraph looks at some of the major topics now under discussion among traders and analysts.
No relief for nervous Bitcoin traders
The latest weekly close for BTC/USD yielded little change over the past seven days.
At just above $26,000, “sideways” is the name of the game for the pair, which weathered a slew of potential volatility triggers over the week.
A trip to new three-month lows was short-lived, however, and traders are now cautiously waiting for new cues on the direction while not yet defaulting to a bearish view.
“I remain long while we show no signs of a reversal,” Crypto Tony said in a summary of his position on the day.
“Looking for that trend line test at $26,900, and following a flip of that we then have $27,300 to note then up and away. Step by step we move.”
Fellow trader Koala argued that upside and downside extremes centered on a $4,000-wide corridor, with lows likely to get swept before a return to $27,000.
“A set of equal highs and equal lows. I think we run the equal lows before the equal highs,” he argued.
“The demand area is where I’m interested in bidding for a run higher (invalidation is quite obvious) If demand holds, then 27k+. Otherwise, 23kish.”
For Credible Crypto, the potential range was narrower, with $25,500 the lower boundary.
“It would not surprise me to see us chop around between the RED and GREEN regions below for another few weeks. Any move above 28.5k and we will have broken a key market structure level that would imply that our corrective structure has completed and we may have begun a new impulsive move,” he wrote in part of a recent analysis alongside an explanatory chart.
“A low timeframe move below GREEN is OK, because (as per previous posts), my HTF bias is bullish above 20k. That being said, I would only expect us to dip below GREEN due to some short term, fundamental/event driven volatility. Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.”
Trader Pierre flagged two trend lines in the form of the four-hour and one-day as support and resistance levels, respectively.
Very elaborate analysis shared yesterday:
– Must hold = H4 trend
– Must break = D1 downtrend (same since +29.0k)
– Chopfest in between pic.twitter.com/h9lhnjKImH— Pierre – I will never DM you first (@pierre_crypt0) June 19, 2023
BTC price additionally circled the classic 200-week moving average (MA) at $26,600 to start the week, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Speculators in the spotlight
In terms of where BTC price might fall should downside momentum return, on-chain analysis offers a clearer vision of support.
For analytics firm Glassnode, recent price action has centered on a key breakeven point for Bitcoin’s more speculative investor cohort.
Dubbed short-term holders (STHs), these correspond to wallet entities that have hodled coins for 155 days or less.
The aggregate cost basis (CB) for these entities — the price at which they purchased coins within that 155-day window — currently sits at $26,400, roughly matching the 200-week MA.
“The recent volatility in Bitcoin price action has been anchored around the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis of $26.4K,” Glassnode argued in a tweet at the weekend.
“This suggests the STH-CB remains a pivotal level in determining both the direction and momentum of the local trend.”
Below $26,400, then, STHs begin to encounter unrealized losses on their investment, as shown by an accompanying chart.
Macro cools after intense week
With U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on June 19, macro catalysts for crypto markets wait until later in the week.
While not as numerous or significant as the previous week’s set, these still have the potential to spark some surprise volatility.
The Federal Reserve is among them, with Chair Jerome Powell due to testify before Congress over two days from June 21.
After the Fed’s recent decision to pause interest rate hikes but leave the door open to resume them later, markets will be keenly analyzing Powell’s language for hints about what might come next.
To cap off the week, June 22 will see the release of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
Among market participants, meanwhile, the focus is equally on Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional risk assets as it is on how macro triggers impact them.
“Not only has $BTC lost the positive correlation w/SPX and NDX, but we’ve also lost the inverse corr w/DXY,” trader Josh Olszewicz noted last week, referencing Bitcoin’s interaction with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index, respectively.
Credible Crypto suggested that the recent disparity between BTC and SPX performance — sideways versus what various source have called a “bull market rally” — may yet resolve in bulls’ favor.
Been seeing quite a few comments lately on the “weakness” of $BTC vs trad markets $SPX and how this is bad for crypto.
Don’t mistake consolidation for weakness.
Like a student who gets a good nights sleep before a major exam- the more we rest before the big day the better we… pic.twitter.com/FoCrvOskD1
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 18, 2023
Cointelegraph has often reported on the ups and downs of Bitcoin’s macro correlations in recent years. A notable theme post-2020 has been a strength during periods of Fed liquidity injections and vice versa.
GBTC gets a BlackRock boost
Bitcoin itself may be offering little inspiration, but one of its biggest investment vehicles is experiencing a resurgence in its own right.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has begun a fresh attempt at narrowing its heavy discount versus the BTC spot price.
GBTC has traded at this discount — which is, in fact, a negative premium — since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in 2021. Since then, it has reached -50%.
Last week’s announcement of a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing by BlackRock appeared to induce a change of mood, and as of June 17, the premium had decreased to -36.6%.
As Cointelegraph reported, the changes came despite arguments over the true status of BlackRock’s offering, with some claiming that it would not be a spot ETF, which remain banned in the United States.
That aside, GBTC’s recent performance remains impressive — 36.6% is within striking distance of new 2023 highs for the premium.
Buyers have also been making themselves known, leaving major client ARK Invest to react. ARK currently owns more than 5.3 million GBTC shares.
This week, meanwhile, fresh speculation of an ETF offering focuses on asset manager Fidelity Investments, with details still forthcoming.
“I was long GBTC before this but this makes me more confident that it was the correct move,” investor Mike Alfred reacted.
Market optimism sees repeated tests
Crypto market sentiment got spooked last week thanks to the combined ramifications of U.S. legal action against exchanges and macroeconomic policy changes.
Related: Bitcoin bulls look to re-establish control — Will BNB, LTC, OKB and QNT follow?
A look at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows how recent events have left their mark, with June 15 seeing the lowest score since mid-March.
While this suggests a more “fearful” environment than at any time since then, Fear & Greed nonetheless remains surprisingly stable. Those lows came in at 41/100 — barely “fearful” at all and subsequently returning to the stable “neutral” range.
As of June 19, the Index measures 47/100.
Continuing, research firm Santiment also cited the BlackRock ETF story as potential fuel for markets — specifically because some reactions were hostile.
For Santiment, “the more negativity surrounding this story, the stronger likelihood of a continued rise” in crypto markets, it explained last week.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
What happened
A beaten-down stock for much of this year, in recent days Estee Lauder (EL 2.28%) has been staging a bit of a comeback. According to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the well-known cosmetics company’s share price had risen by 13% week to date as of early Friday morning. In retrospect that wasn’t all too surprising — after all, an analyst raised his recommendation to buy during the week.
So what
That analyst is Fulvio Cazzol from Berenberg, who on Wednesday upgraded his estimation on Estee Lauder to buy from neutral. He also slapped a $243-per-share price target on the storied cosmetics purveyor, which implies potential upside of almost 22% on the current level of the stock.
Cazzol’s revised view is based on both the share price decline (the stock had been down by 27% year to date) and a rise in the consensus analyst earnings estimate. This puts it in buy territory, in his estimation.
The prognosticator also feels that Estee Lauder’s fundamentals support the bullish new take. Among other improvements, he believes the company’s fiscal 2024 organic sales will rise by 16% over the previous year, following a 5% decline in 2023.
Now what
The pundit class is certainly bullish on Estee Lauder as a group, and it seems investors are slowly coming around to agreeing with them. At the moment, the average analyst estimate for per-share annual earnings growth for fiscal 2024 is a whopping 59%, on revenue that’s forecast to increase by 11%.
Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Cardano (ADA) bounced modestly after nosediving nearly 30% in the last week, its worst seven-day performance since May 2021, when China banned crypto mining.
Nonetheless, ADA looks ready to undergo a sharp recovery in the coming months, based on technical analysis.
ADA price up 30% from six-month lows
On June 12, ADA price rose 2.25% to $0.28, up around 27% from the six-month low of $0.22 last week. The rise appeared alongside gains elsewhere in the crypto market, hinting at investors buying the dip.
The reasons behind Cardano’s bad week include the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) labeling it an unregistered security in lawsuits filed against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase.
On June 9, U.S.-based investment platform Robinhood, which allows users to trade cryptocurrencies, announced it would delist ADA from its platform. This preceded a 30% drop in ADA’s price on the day.
Cardano was also part of the services offered by crypto exchange Crypto.com to its U.S.-based institutional clients. On June 9, the company terminated those services, thus restricting ADA to its potential mainstream investors base in the United States.
Cardano most oversold since March 2020
Cardano’s technicals, however, hint at a possible rebound ahead. For instance, the ongoing token recovery comes a day after its daily relative strength index (RSI) dropped to 20, the most oversold since March 2020.
Oversold RSI readings typically precede a consolidating or recovering price action.
For instance, the ADA price had jumped 900% four months after March 2020’s oversold readings. It also happened due to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy, which boosted upside sentiments across the riskier markets.
However, the Fed is poised to continue hiking interest rates as inflation persists, which should remove excess cash from the market. In addition, the SEC’s crypto crackdown has created unfavorable market conditions in the U.S. for crypto assets like ADA.
Therefore, an oversold rebound, if it comes, could be weaker than what the market witnessed after March 2020.
On the three-day chart, ADA appears rangebound inside the $0.247–0.382 area, similar to its price trends in January 2021 and January 2023, as shown below.
Therefore, a rebound from the $0.247 support may start an uptrend toward $0.382 by October 2023. The $0.382 resistance, up 40% from current levels, also coincides with the 200-3D EMA (the red wave).
Conversely, a decisive close below the $0.247 support gives bears more fuel to pull the price toward $0.19, down about 30% by October 2023, a resistance-turned-support level from the July 2020 to December 2020 session.
Related: Nigeria regulator halts Binance operations: Report
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.