Worldwide

Of course, the most important election of all will be in the U.S. in November. Let’s start with Congress. Republicans hold a razor-thin edge in the House, Democrats a razor-thin edge in the Senate. Both chambers are up for grabs.

As for the marquee race to occupy the White House, for the first time since 1912 an incumbent president, Joe Biden, is likely to square off against a former president, Donald Trump in a grudge match that polls say few Americans want. (In 1912, sitting President William Howard Taft ran against former President Theodore Roosevelt; both of them and a fourth candidate lost to New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson.) Only one former president has ever lost re-election only to later reclaim the White House, and that was Grover Cleveland, who unseated President Benjamin Harrison in 1892. 

Currently, polls suggest that Trump has an edge, notably in several swing states that will likely determine the outcome. But the No. 1 issue with Americans is the economy, and with GDP currently growing 4.9%, unemployment at 3.7%, wages rising faster than inflation, and gasoline below $3 in much of the country — not to mention a U.S. stock market (Trump’s favorite barometer) near all-time highs — the economic gloom that polls show most Americans harbor may be misplaced. 

In one key respect, the 2024 U.S. election is looking more like 2016 than 2020, in that overseas events could help forecast the outcome. In 2016, Brexit — Britain’s vote to leave the European Union — reflected a “nat-pop” (nationalism-populism) surge that was later evident in Trump’s victory. Nationalism-populism appears to be on the rise again in Europe, thanks in no small part to an issue that bedevils Americans as well: migration. It was a huge issue in the often left-leaning Netherlands, where recent elections showed a rightward tilt. Keep your eye on other European elections this year, which could result in gains for far-right, anti-immigrant candidates. It could foreshadow the U.S. results come November.

Another economic-political issue that is gaining strength is climate change, and its potentially harmful influence on supply chains, inflation and more. 

As is the case with many issues, this splits along partisan lines, with far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters calling it important. Climate change is also more top of mind among younger voters, who will have to adjust to its consequences. Subsets of climate change — water shortages, the drying up of farmland — are also one cause (of many) of migration, incidentally.

The cost of Ukraine to Americans

This perilous election year also includes issues of war and peace. As tragic as the present Israel-Gaza conflict is, the possibility of it escalating into a broader Mideast conflict is an even greater danger that must be contained. A steady hand in the White House’s Oval Office will be essential. 

Then there is Russia’s vicious war on Ukraine, which now approaches its third year. Ominously — and to the delight of Putin — American support for continued aid to Kyiv softened considerably last year, as many Americans questioned the cost, and whether events in far-off Ukraine are even relevant to long-term American interests. 

On this question, may I respectfully suggest that those who say supporting Ukraine is not a core American interest should consider this matter in another way, namely the millions of American jobs and billions of dollars that depend on a stable Europe.

For example: 

• The U.S. exported $592 billion in goods and services to the European Union in 2022 

• Some eight million American jobs are directly supported by European companies, estimates the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which adds that half of all foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States came from Europe in 2022.

These jobs and the wealth they bring thrive on stability and are anchored — as has been the case since the end of World War II — by shared democratic values and deep geopolitical ties between Americans and their allies across the Atlantic. 

When the U.S. helps Ukraine defend itself, Americans are defending all this, and anyone questioning the price should also consider the longer-term and far greater price of not doing so. Such considerations also apply to other countries that are threatened by Putin, such as Poland and the tiny Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

This also applies to other freedom-loving democracies like Taiwan, which along with China’s President Xi Jinping is watching closely to see whether America is committed to supporting its democratic friends around the world— and whether America is determined to maintain the global stability that has helped provide its economic blessings for the past eight decades.  

More: Americans feel worse about the economy than they should. And that’s bad news for Biden.

Plus: U.S. recession still a threat; China growth stalls, and other 2024 investing risks