Bitcoin continues to range trade, and altcoin traders are starting to view BTC’s price consolidation as a positive sign for the rest of the crypto market.
What is CryptoSlate Alpha?
A web3 membership designed to empower you with cutting-edge insights and knowledge. Learn more ›
Connected to Alpha
Welcome! 👋 You are connected to CryptoSlate Alpha. To manage your wallet connection, click the button below.
Oops…you must lock a minimum of 20,000 ACS
If you don’t have enough, buy ACS on the following exchanges:
Connect via Access Protocol
Access Protocol is a web3 monetization paywall. When users stake ACS, they can access paywalled content. Learn more ›
Disclaimer: By choosing to lock your ACS tokens with CryptoSlate, you accept and recognize that you will be bound by the terms and conditions of your third-party digital wallet provider, as well as any applicable terms and conditions of the Access Foundation. CryptoSlate shall have no responsibility or liability with regard to the provision, access, use, locking, security, integrity, value, or legal status of your ACS Tokens or your digital wallet, including any losses associated with your ACS tokens. It is solely your responsibility to assume the risks associated with locking your ACS tokens with CryptoSlate. For more information, visit our terms page.
MicroStrategy, under the leadership of Chairman Michael Saylor, has shown continued interest in the flagship cryptocurrency.
Software developer MicroStrategy has revealed its plan to increase its Bitcoin (BTC) stack. According to a Tuesday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the firm’s action plan includes raising at least $750 million by selling more stock. It will then use a sizable part of the fund raised to buy more BTC.
MicroStrategy Continues Its Bitcoin (BTC) Acquisition Spree
It might be worth mentioning that MicroStrategy, under the leadership of Chairman Michael Saylor, has shown continued interest in the flagship cryptocurrency. To put the above statement into perspective, the firm has invested billions of dollars into BTC since the pandemic.
However, it is also worth noting that, for some reason, Saylor has led MicroStrategy to keep raising funds for its BTC purchases the old-fashioned way. That is, by selling more of the publicly traded company’s equity and bonds.
About its intention to sell more stock, the new filing revealed that MicroStrategy will not be using the entire capital to buy BTC. The statement reads in part:
“We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of bitcoin and working capital.”
BTC Price Appreciates
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s BTC price surged significantly following reports of the BTC Whale’s plan to increase its holding. The price went up from around $29,200 to about $29,800 late Tuesday. However, it has since retraced, and currently hovers around $21,400, as CoinMarketCap data suggests. Nonetheless, the price is still up on the daily chart, gaining 1.56% in the past 24 hours.
As Coinspeaker earlier reported, MicroStrategy has 152,800 Bitcoin in its possession. That is worth approximately $4.5 billion, as of publication. But with the new announcement, expectations are that there is about to be some addition to those figures.
next
Mayowa is a crypto enthusiast/writer whose conversational character is quite evident in his style of writing. He strongly believes in the potential of digital assets and takes every opportunity to reiterate this.
He’s a reader, a researcher, an astute speaker, and also a budding entrepreneur.
Away from crypto however, Mayowa’s fancied distractions include soccer or discussing world politics.
Bitcoin (BTC) returned to exchanges en masse on July 27 in a sign that “major volatility” could come next.
According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, intraday BTC exchange inflows have hit multi-month highs.
Trader warns of BTC price volatility “spike”
BTC price action continues to linger below $30,000, and traders have consistently warned that further downside could come next.
At current levels, Bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort, the whales, appear to be in a state of flux in an unclear market.
Now, with large tranches of coins on the move in recent days, attention is focusing on entities sending funds to exchanges — with the implication that selling pressure could increase as a result.
As noted by market observers, including James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, over 10,000 BTC in inflows on a single day represented the biggest one-day increase for several months.
“Yesterday, the most amount of Bitcoin went back onto exchanges since the SVB collapse in March,” he commented on July 28.
Straten referenced the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which at the time sparked mass market uncertainty.
“Watch out for a spike in volatility!” popular trader Ali continued on the topic, alongside data from research firm Santiment.
“A large number of idle BTC has been exchanging hands over the past 24 hours, which coincides with a 10,000 BTC increase in supply on crypto exchanges.”
Glassnode shows that the changes took the combined BTC balance on the exchanges it monitors back above the 2.25-million mark.
Overall, however, balances remain at multi-year lows, having last circled 2.25 million in March 2018.
Bitcoin hodler cost basis in focus
Continuing, Straten noted the ongoing influence of the cost basis of various hodler cohorts over BTC price.
Related: Bitcoin bull run next? Bitfinex stablecoin ratio ‘blows up’ in 2023
The cost basis of both short-term and long-term holders, already on the radar at Glassnode and elsewhere, remain important support levels.
“Bitcoin long-term holders have reduced their cost basis to $20,490. This is the lowest cost basis since April 2022. Realized price is now only $70 below,” he wrote alongside a summary chart.
“Price in both the 2015 and 2019 bear markets used short-term holder realized price as support, 2023 is exactly the same, testing it three times so far $28,241.”
Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has announced a joint venture with Jio Financial Services Limited (JFS) to form Jio BlackRock with the goal of democratizing access to investment solutions for investors in India through a digital-first strategy.
As BlackRock’s press release stated, this venture combines the deep expertise and talent of the global giant in several areas, including investment management, product excellence, technology, and intellectual capital around markets. JFS will contribute with its local market knowledge, digital infrastructure capabilities, and robust execution abilities.
The partnership aims to introduce a new player into the Indian market with a unique blend of “scope, scale, and resources.”
Each company targets an initial investment of $150 million in the joint venture.
Rachel Lord, Chair & Head of APAC, BlackRock, expressed her excitement about the partnership, stating that
“India represents an enormously important opportunity. The convergence of rising affluence, favourable demographics, and digital transformation across industries is reshaping the market in incredible ways.”
She also mentioned the venture’s aim to revolutionize India’s asset management industry and transform financial futures.
Hitesh Sethia, President and CEO of JFS, echoed Lord’s sentiments, emphasizing that the partnership would leverage BlackRock’s deep investment expertise and JFS’s technology capability to drive the digital delivery of products.
Sethia envisions Jio BlackRock as a genuinely “transformational, customer-centric, and digital-first enterprise” with the vision to democratize access to financial investment solutions” for the people of India.
Blackrock financial strength
BlackRock’s recent financial report released on July 14, 2023, showed a steady financial position with $80 billion of quarterly total net inflows reflecting the continued strength of their broad-based platform.
The company also reported a $831 billion increase in AUM since the end of 2022. A 1% decrease in revenue year-over-year was primarily driven by the impact of market movements over the past twelve months on average AUM.
Bitcoin rumors
In related news, rumors circulating on Twitter, as posted by Bitcoin Magazine, purportedly suggest that BlackRock in 2022 had recommended an optimal Bitcoin allocation of a substantial 84.9%.
While the legitimacy of this document remains unverified, this added context to BlackRock’s recent activities in the digital investment landscape, including their recent refiling for a Spot Bitcoin ETF.
With BlackRock’s strategic move into India and its continued interest in digital investments, the financial giant is positioning itself at the forefront of the evolving global investment ecosystem.
Bitcoin (BTC) traders braced for classic volatility on July 26 as the United States Federal Reserve interest rate decision dawned.
“Let the games begin” for Bitcoin — FOMC day arrives
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action hovering near $29,200.
While barely moving since the start of the week, Bitcoin volatility was fully on market participants’ radar, with macro triggers just hours away.
As the first of these, the Fed rates announcement was tipped to spark erratic — if unreliable — short-term BTC price moves, in line with tradition.
Both the announcement itself and subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell were of interest on the day.
“The market has priced in a 25bps rate hike, and currently also believes this will be the last rate hike in a while,” popular trader Jelle told Twitter followers in part of his latest analysis.
“This is what makes the event interesting; what JPow says after the initial rate hike announcement.”
Jelle was referring to practically unanimous expectations that the Fed will hike by 25 basis points. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, those odds stood at 98.9% at the time of writing, with just a 1.1% chance of a 50-basis-point rise.
Analyzing order book composition on the largest global crypto exchange Binance, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators noted that one or more entities were preparing for BTC’s price to react to the Fed with fresh losses.
$16 million worth of “plunge protection” bid liquidity sat at just below $28,000 on the day.
“Let the games begin,” it summarized in part of Twitter commentary.
Dollar nerves return
Beyond Bitcoin, U.S. dollar strength looked similarly undecided on trajectory ahead of the Fed.
Related: Biggest mining difficulty drop of 2023? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), currently in the midst of a modest rebound after hitting its lowest in over a year, trended downhill once more on the day, nearing 101.
Traditionally inversely correlated with risk assets and Bitcoin, DXY remains a topic of interest for some BTC traders eyeing historical trends.
Among them is popular trader Moustache, who this week revealed a copycat Bitcoin/DXY scenario echoing previous Bitcoin bull runs.
A Bitcoin breakout, he argued, was only a matter of time.
As suspected last week, the $DXY is doing a retest.
The real fun begins as soon as it’s done with it.It’s the same picture as in 2017 and 2020.
-In 2017 it took 5 months from here to the peak
-In 2020 it took 10 months
-2023..Be patient ladies & gentleman. pic.twitter.com/qYsjvhBkHK
— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) July 24, 2023
Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.
Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on Jan. 3, 2009, minting the first 50 Bitcoin (BTC) in history and kicking off what would become a billion-dollar industry centered around mining crypto. However, with a cap on Bitcoin supply, the fate of miners after the last coins are issued is unclear.
Bitcoin is created through mining, a process involving computer hardware to solve complex mathematical problems and verify transactions on the blockchain network. For their efforts, miners are rewarded with a predetermined amount of BTC for each block of transactions.
According to the Blockchain Council, more than 19 million BTC has been awarded to miners in block rewards, and according to Nakamoto’s white paper, only 21 million are available. Once this cap is reached, miners will no longer receive rewards for verifying transactions.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Nick Hansen, founder and CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Luxor Mining, says that despite the loss of block rewards, miners will continue to play an essential role in verifying and recording transactions on the blockchain, but how they are compensated will evolve.
Currently, successfully validating a new block on the blockchain rewards miners with 6.25 BTC, worth about $188,381 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko. Miners also receive transaction fees.
According to calculations shared in a May 1 tweet from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, since 2010, fees and block rewards have netted miners over $50 billion.
Since #Bitcoin‘s inception, Miners have earnt a total revenue of $50.2B from the block subsidy and fees, for an all-time estimated input cost of $36.6B.
This places the all-time-aggregate profit margin for Miners at $13.6B (+37%). pic.twitter.com/TYvBSZbsRo
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 2, 2023
Hansen believes transaction fees will eventually become the primary incentive for miners to continue long after the last BTC is mined.
“That’s why as transaction fees become an increasingly important part of Bitcoin mining economics, understanding transaction fee dynamics and forecasting them into the future becomes even more critical,” he said, adding:
“Thus, it’s important to see fees increase over time, something that Bitcoin Ordinals, as of late, has helped with, for example.”
However, this shift is still likely years away, given that nobody currently mining will be alive when the last BTC block reward is received.
It will be a long wait to find out
According to Hansen, based on the block discovery rate and the halving process, which occurs roughly every four years — or every 210,000 blocks of transactions — the last BTC will most likely be mined around 2140.
A Bitcoin halving is a planned reduction in the rewards that miners receive, with the next one currently predicted to occur around April 2024. This will reduce the reward for each block to 3.125 BTC or roughly $94,190 at the time of writing.
In theory, by limiting the supply of BTC, each coin’s value should increase as demand increases and supply remains fixed.
Hansen says the price of BTC in 2140 will depend on unpredictable factors such as market demand, the regulatory environment, technological advancements and macroeconomic factors.
“The fact that all Bitcoin is in circulation may create scarcity, but whether this scarcity will translate to price increases is subject to market dynamics,” he said.
“As we look to a future where all Bitcoin has been mined, it’s important to remember that Bitcoin was designed with this endgame in mind.
“The tapering off of block rewards and shift toward transaction fees are intrinsic to the protocol, and represent an ingenious solution to ensuring the ongoing security and viability of the network,” Hansen added.
Related: Rising BTC transaction fees are a good thing, Bitcoin educator shares
Jaran Mellerud, a research analyst from Hashrate Index, told Cointelegraph that as Bitcoin adoption and usage grows, transaction fees will drastically increase and become the primary source of revenue for mining firms.
Mellerud said that, by the time the last BTC is issued, the block subsidy will have already been so minuscule that it will not significantly impact the coin supply.
“Due to the huge block space demand relative to the scarce block space supply, transaction fees will have to skyrocket in a future scenario of hyperbitcoinization,” he said, adding:
“If you don’t believe there will be sufficiently high transaction fees in the future to justify the existence of mining, you don’t really believe in Bitcoin.”
What about fiat
By the time the last Bitcoin is mined, Mellerud believes its value won’t be measured in United States dollars or other fiat currencies.
He speculates that by then, fiat money systems will have long since collapsed, and Bitcoin could be the successor, becoming the standard unit of account globally.
“Under such circumstances, the only valid way to measure the purchasing power of Bitcoin is by looking at how much energy a Bitcoin or satoshi can purchase,” Mellerud said.
“Just as we currently measure the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in energy terms, barrels of oil,” he added.
A collapse of fiat money systems has long been predicted, spurred on by the many problems facing the traditional financial system. As recently as March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed due to a liquidity crisis, with Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank following.
Related: The first-world debt crisis means you can expect more pain ahead
Before the March 2023 banking crisis, a February survey conducted by business intelligence firm Morning Consult and commissioned by crypto exchange Coinbase found most respondents were already disillusioned with the global financial system.
Bitcoin might not be the same in 120 years
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Pat White, co-founder and CEO of digital asset platform Bitwave, believes miners will remain a critical part of the ecosystem, but not all will survive, with some shutting down in the face of mounting costs.
According to a March 24 report from Glassnode, since 2010, miners have already been experiencing long periods of unprofitability, with only 47% of trading days being profitable.
“I think it’s conceivable we’ll see some miners shut down or other manipulation techniques used in an effort to drive up fees,” White said, adding:
“But I also imagine that will happen well before the last Bitcoin is mined since the last few halvings will get the block rewards down to the satoshi level.”
However, White also says “a lot can happen in 120 years,” and BTC could fundamentally change over the next century.
White believes that by 2140, quantum computers will likely have broken the core encryption under Bitcoin, though he says engineers working on it have long known it’s not quantum-secure.
“That shouldn’t necessarily scare people because of this quantum security issue. Between now and 2140, there will have to be a major reworking of Bitcoin from the encryption layer upward,” he said.
“At that point, the Bitcoin developer community will be able to assess whether or not we’re actually on track to have a functioning transaction fee-based network or if additional Bitcoin mining is necessary to ensure the security of the network,” White added.
White further speculates that while Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper states that 21 million BTC is the supply cap and the single most concrete rule, none of us will likely be alive by 2140 to enforce that rule.
He believes crypto boils down to coding and consensus; if the community thinks the transaction fee incentive is insufficient to keep the network secure, future miners could theoretically extend the BTC hard cap beyond 21 million.
Related: $160K at next halving? Model counts down to new Bitcoin all-time high
What effect this could have on the price isn’t clear, but either way, White thinks that the price of Bitcoin will stabilize at some global inflation-reflecting price point, and the major price movement will occur at some time in the next 120 years if one or more nations seriously pick it up as their reserve currency.
In that instance, he says it will “likely be independent of Bitcoin mining schedules,” and it would be the most solidifying moment to drive up the price of BTC.
Related: US law protects institutions and exposes retail investors — Rep. Torres
“There are things we can’t even imagine that might impact Bitcoin — wars and energy crises obviously — but what if we’re a true multiplanetary species by then and we have to extend the block production time to support solar system-level communication speeds,” White said.
“What I always find important is to focus on the hardest problems we’re seeing today and do what we can to solve them. That might mean solving for payments or digital ownership, or banking the unbanked — these are the problems to focus on now,” he added.
Bitcoin (BTC) targeted new month-to-date lows at the July 18 Wall Street open as bulls refused to give up on the $30,000 support.
BTC price: Heavy resistance risks weekly downtrend
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action dropping after a modest rebound from $29,675 — its worst level in July so far.
Few signs of upward momentum and a waning relative strength index (RSI) offered little hope for those seeking a return to range highs.
Traders continued to offer downside targets extending to $27,000, while longer timeframes now also looked increasingly fragile.
“After upside wicking beyond the ~$30600 resistance, BTC has finally been rejected to the point of losing the Higher Low,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital commented about the one-week chart.
“Weekly Close below the Higher Low will confirm this loss and as long as this HL acts as resistance…. ~$29300 could be next.”
Others were keen to look beyond the current retracement, eyeing the potential for the 2023 uptrend to return.
#Bitcoin Gearing up for its next big move!
Smoothed Heikin Ashi candles flipped green on the 3 weekly timeframe.
Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/3P5DFpRTKd
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) July 18, 2023
Looking for something like this on Bitcoin. Hope everyone has a good start to their week. pic.twitter.com/ETdnUoxTnt
— TraderKoz (@TraderKoz) July 18, 2023
“While Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the RSI is almost fully reset. Find some bid here at support, and we can go for another test of the major resistance level,” popular trader Jelle added in part of the day’s social media analysis.
The RSI “reset” took the daily metric to levels last seen in mid-June, when BTC/USD still traded at around $26,000.
Bitcoin range lows in line for a “sweep”
Continuing on the RSI theme, Scott Melker, a popular trader and podcast host known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” saw $28,600 as a likely comedown target.
Related: Bitcoin price is ‘stuck’ at $30K — Here are 3 reasons why
“The daily chart showed a massive overbought bearish divergence, my favorite top signal,” he said in part of a Twitter thread on July 17.
“This built up for multiple divergences and has not been invalidated. Usually this pushed RSI back to oversold. Half way there so far.”
Melker added that “at the very least,” a rematch with Bitcoin’s range lows should occur, but he was uncertain whether this would be sufficient for a local floor.
“My bias is still for a test of $28,600 as support, which was the low of the entire bull run of 2021, basically. My last buy was a similar test of $25,212, which took patience,” he concluded.
Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin remains stuck inside a narrow range, making it difficult to predict the direction of the next possible breakout. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which generally moves in inverse correlation to Bitcoin (BTC), dropped below 100, but that has failed to propel Bitcoin higher. This suggests that Bitcoin is charting its own course in the near term.
Therefore, the earnings season from big companies this week may sway equities markets in the United States but may not have the same effect on Bitcoin. It is becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint the event or the news flow that will cause Bitcoin’s price to escape the range.
The uncertainty about Bitcoin’s next directional move has not deterred the whales. CryptoQuant’s contributing analyst SignalQuant highlighted that one on-chain indicator, the unspent transaction outputs, has been rising in 2023, similar to the increase seen in 2019. If the indicator continues to rise, it will suggest that Bitcoin has room to run and the low made in late 2022 was a long-term bottom.
Could the DXY stage a recovery? Will that limit the upside in Bitcoin and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong uptrend. The price has reached resistance at 4,513, which may act as a minor hurdle. But if bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will suggest that traders expect the rally to continue.
The developing negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) has been negated, indicating that the bulls remain in command. If buyers thrust and sustain the price above 4,513, the index could resume its uptrend and reach 4,650. This level may again act as a strong barrier.
On the way down, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,420 is the important support level to watch out for. If this support gives way, it will signal that the bulls may be booking profits. That may sink the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,293.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index broke below the moving averages on July 7 and continued its downward spiral. The bears yanked the price below the vital support at 100.82 on July 12, completing a bearish descending triangle pattern.
The sharp fall of the past few days has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, indicating that a minor recovery is possible. If the price turns up from the current level, the index could retest the breakdown level of 100.82.
This remains the key level to watch for. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the previous support into resistance. That could start a downtrend, which could reach 97 and then collapse toward the pattern target of 93.64.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly push and maintain the price above 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bulls have defended the 20-day EMA ($30,173) for the past three days, but a negative sign is that they have failed to start a strong bounce off it. This suggests a lack of aggressive demand at current levels.
The 20-day EMA has started to flatten out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. That could keep the pair inside the tight range of $29,500 and $31,500 for a while longer.
Buyers will have to shove the price above $32,400 to signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The BTC/USDT pair could then surge toward $40,000. Instead, if the price tumbles below $29,500, the pair may skid to the 50-day SMA ($28,671).
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) is trying to maintain above the 20-day EMA ($1,897), suggesting that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
The bulls will try to push the price to the psychological resistance of $2,000. This remains the key level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will clear the path for a possible rally to the $2,141 to $2,200 zone.
The crucial support to watch on the downside is the 50-day SMA ($1,853). If this level cracks, it will suggest that the ETH/USDT pair may remain inside the large range between $1,626 and $2,000 for some more time.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) is finding support in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.69 and the 61.8% retracement level of $0.64.
The bulls will try to resume the up move, but they may face formidable resistance at $0.83 and again at $0.93. If the price turns down from this zone, the XRP/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a range for a few days.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.64. If that happens, it will signal an urgency among the bulls to exit their positions. That could sink the pair to the 20-day EMA ($0.58).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($253) and reentered the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 14. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance at $265.
The 20-day EMA ($244) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The BNB/USDT pair could oscillate inside the triangle for a few more days.
Buyers will have to propel and maintain the price above the triangle to gain the upper hand. The momentum could pick up after the bulls kick the price above the overhead resistance at $265. Alternatively, a break below the triangle will signal that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. The pair could resume its downtrend below $220.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on July 15 and 16, which suggests short-term uncertainty about the next directional move.
Generally, the tightening of the range is followed by a sharp breakout. If buyers thrust the price above $29.12, the SOL/USDT pair could jump to $32.13. A rally above this level could open the doors for a further rise to $38.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and plunges below $26, it will suggest that the advantage has tilted in favor of the bears. The pair could first slide to $24 and thereafter to the 20-day EMA ($22.53).
Related: Bitcoin ‘full breakout’ not here yet as BTC price spends month at $30K
Cardano price analysis
Cardano’s (ADA) pullback has reached near the breakout level of $0.30. Usually, such a deep correction delays the start of the next leg of the up move.
However, the moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. If the price turns up from the current level, buyers will again try to drive the ADA/USDT pair to the overhead resistance at $0.38.
It is unlikely to be an easy path higher for the bulls. The bears will try to stall the recovery at $0.34 and again at $0.36. On the downside, a break and close below $0.30 could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the overhead resistance at $0.07.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that the bulls have a slight edge. The bulls will try to propel the price to $0.08, where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. That could keep the DOGE/USDT pair stuck inside the $0.06 to $0.07 range for some more time.
Polygon price analysis
Usually, the price turns down and retests the breakout from a pattern, and Polygon (MATIC) is doing just that. The price could drop to $0.72.
If the price rebounds off $0.72 with strength, it will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the price above the overhead resistance of $0.90. If they do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move. The first stop could be the psychological resistance of $1 and subsequently $1.20.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price continues lower and plummets below the uptrend line. The pair could then slump to $0.60.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $30,000 but is heading nowhere, with the multimonth trading range refusing to shift.
BTC price action is giving traders little more than a frustrating sense of deja vu as they wonder what it could take to change the trend.
It may be more accurate to say that on low timeframes, a trend is exactly what Bitcoin lacks. The largest cryptocurrency has spent weeks bounding between upside and downside liquidity pockets without deciding whether bulls or bears will ultimately win.
This struggle continues to play out with predictable regularity, and nothing — not macroeconomic data prints, institutional involvement or anything else — has been able to switch things up.
With that in mind, it may not be all that problematic that the coming week offers little in terms of data-driven risk asset catalysts from the United States or Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin on-chain data points to a re-accumulation phase among the investor base, possibly reflective of a “calm before the storm” mentality before a more significant market move.
Crypto market sentiment is “neutral,” according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is now nonetheless at its lowest point for July so far.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more to determine potential BTC price triggers for the coming days.
Bitcoin weekly close keeps volatility away
Bitcoin’s weekly candle close refreshingly opted to dispense with volatility, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
While normally a time of erratic short-term price moves, the close saw little disruption, with even $30,000 support remaining unchallenged.
BTC/USD thus continues within a narrow “mini range” in place since last week, when a fakeout to upside liquidity resulted in new yearly highs followed by a dramatic comedown.
“I think everyone can see this range with their eyes closed at this point,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized.
“For me it’s pretty easy. Bulls have to retake $30.5K for me to consider closing the inefficiency from the dump. Until then, my base case is for price to seek the liquidity at $29.5K.”
Others have similarly come around to the idea that new local lows may come next for Bitcoin, given bulls’ inability to break the range for an extended period.
For fellow trader Credible Crypto, a return to $27,400 — an area not seen in almost a month — is not off the table.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the 6 month inversion FVG EQ.
Quote tweet confluence. pic.twitter.com/XqrpimIJRa
— Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) July 17, 2023
Trader Crypto Tony offered a potential downside target area of around $28,300, adding that this “remains his bias.”
This remains my main bias this week unless the bulls can reverse this quickly. The downside escalates once we lose support at $29,800
Do not rush into a position and remain patient pic.twitter.com/gRk9MQlkdI
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 17, 2023
In terms of strength at local price points, trader Jelle noted an ongoing battle on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which recently printed a bearish divergence with price trajectory.
“Bitcoin tried to take out the bearish divergence last week but got smacked down quickly,” he commented as part of his latest analysis.
“Both bulls and bears defend their ground fiercely. More ping pong, until breakout.”
Earnings season leads U.S. data releases
Those hoping for a macro-inspired risk asset shake-up may be left disappointed this week, with a lack of significant data due from the United States.
The highlight comes in the form of tech firm earnings and jobless claims on July 20, but with a Fed decision on interest rate hikes still around two weeks away, volatility remains on the horizon.
“Earnings season is now in full swing and the July Fed meeting is in focus. It’s going to be a busy couple of weeks,” financial commentary resource, The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a recent social media analysis.
Key Events This Week:
1. Retail Sales data – Tuesday
2. Building Permit data – Wednesday
3. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
4. Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. $TSLA $NFLX $GS and $MS earnings
6. ~10% of S&P 500 reports earnings
We’re 10 days out from the Fed meeting.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 16, 2023
According to current estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets remain convinced that the Fed will resume rate hikes regardless of already positive data prints showing inflation retreating faster than expected.
As of July 17, the odds of a 0.25% hike stand at a practically unanimous 96.1%.
An index to watch, meanwhile, is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), currently attempting to reclaim the 100 mark after dropping below it for the first time in more than a year.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin previously exhibited a strong inverse correlation with DXY, although this has waned considerably in 2023.
Whales return to the game
Turning to on-chain data, a reawakening of Bitcoin whales is getting on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant excited.
As noted by contributing analyst SignalQuant, unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) reflecting large tranches of coins are increasing this year — in classic bull market style.
SignalQuant referenced the UTXO Value Bands metric, which shows whales gradually coming back to life in 2023 after a rapid retreat in the latter half of 2022.
“From that view, as ‘the whale group’ increased with its price back in 2019, they are slowly increasing with its price in 2023 too,” he wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts on July 16.
“If their indicators gradually increase, then we can be more confident that 1)its price at the end of 2022 is a long-term bottom, and 2) that its price will continue to rise.”
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on rebounding whale numbers and other larger investor cohort exposure at current prices.
Supply dynamics repeat early bull market signals
It is not just whale behavior on the radar of analysts at present when it comes to hidden bullish BTC price signals.
The latest on-chain data shows that more of the BTC supply moved near $30,000 than at any other price point, reflecting a critical point of interest throughout the investor base.
In total, the zone around $30,200 has seen a total of 3.8% of the total supply move, according to on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin.
At the same time, older, long-dormant supply is coming back to life. This, Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift argued last week, has been characteristic of the early innings of every Bitcoin bull market to date.
“Increased onchain spending volume showing where we are in the cycle right now. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes,” he commented.
“Greed” fades from crypto markets
Few things show the fickle nature of the average crypto investor than the classic sentiment yardstick, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Related: Bitcoin exchanges now hold the same BTC supply share as in late 2017
While slightly lagging, Fear & Greed captures the rapidly-changing mood among market participants across even established trading ranges.
This is the case around the crucial $30,000 boundary, with sentiment improving markedly above and deteriorating below.
Currently, the index is in neutral territory, but at its lowest for July, at 54/100.
Extremes in either fear or greed tend to act as advance warning of market rebounds or retracements, respectively.
Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.
Magazine: Experts want to give AI human ‘souls’ so they don’t kill us all
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.